船舶海上交通事故人因致因因素分析方法研究  

On analysis method of human factors in marine traffic accidents

作　　者：李成海[1] 刘杰 胡甚平[2] 崔建辉[3] LI Chenghai;LIU Jie;HU Shenping;CUI Jianhui(Shandong Vocational College of Communications,Weifang 261206,China;Merchant Marine College,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China;School of Navigation,Tianjin University of Technology,Tianjin 300191,China)

机构地区：[1]山东交通职业学院,山东潍坊261206 [2]上海海事大学商船学院,上海201306 [3]天津理工大学海运学院,天津300191

出　　处：《宁波大学学报（理工版）》2023年第2期116-120,共5页Journal of Ningbo University：Natural Science and Engineering Edition

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC2801000)。

摘　　要：为克服模糊故障树分析模型计算过程专家人员需求量大,参评专家众多时,定量量化过程复杂及缺少随机性的问题,采用蒙特卡罗法建立模糊故障树分析模型,使用计算机运作生成随机数,并以船舶海上交通事故调查报告中的3个基本事故最小割集进行定量分析.结果表明,蒙特卡罗模型法结合使用计算机生成随机数可以解决模糊故障树分析模型对事故随机性分析结果不准确的问题,实现了在参评专家人员众多情形下简化计算过程的目标.最后通过案例验证了该模型法具有很强的针对性和实用性.In order to meet the demand of large number of experts for the analytical calculation of the fuzzy fault tree modeling process,addressing issues with the complexity and lack of randomness in the quantitative quantification process of evaluation by experts in large numbers,this study proposes using Monte Carlo method to establish fuzzy fault tree analysis model.Computer simulation is used to generate random numbers,and three basic accident minimum cut sets in the marine traffic accident investigation report are used for quantitative analysis.The analysis results show that the Monte Carlo model method with generated random numbers solves the problem to wihch the fuzzy fault tree analysis model could not get accurate outcomes,and achieves the goal of simplifying the calculation process for the cases where a large number of experts are required.Finally,the calculation results from the specified cases show that the proposed model method features in strong particularity and practicability.

关 键 词：海上交通事故 人因致因因素 模糊故障树 蒙特卡罗模型 定量分析 

分 类 号：U698.6[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]