1998—2020年三峡库区最大1h降水的时空变化特征  

Temporal and spatial variations of maximum one-hour precipitation in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region from 1998 to 2020

作　　者：王雨潇 孙营营[1] 张天宇[2] 刘波[1] 王文鹏[1,3] 蒋佳怡 WANG Yuxiao;SUN Yingying;ZHANG Tianyu;LIU Bo;WANG Wenpeng;JIANG Jiayi(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Chongqing Climate Center,Chongqing 401147,China;Key Laboratory of Water Conservancy Big Data of Ministry of Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]重庆市气候中心,重庆401147 [3]水利部水利大数据重点实验室(河海大学),江苏南京211100

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第1期10-18,共9页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFB3900601);三峡气候监测项目(SK2021015);中央高校基本科研业务费专项(B220201028)。

摘　　要：以年、月最大1 h降水强度及其发生时间为指标,采用趋势检验、周期分析、经验正交函数和降水过程综合强度评估方法,分析了1998—2020年三峡库区最大1 h降水的时空变化特征。结果表明:库区年最大1 h降水发生时间有每隔约10 a前移至汛前的现象,主汛期7月最大1 h降水强度有8 a的循环周期;与2010年以前比,2010年后的库区强降水落区表现出自上游向坝址迁移的走势;若最大1 h降水强度相近,则降水持续时间长、覆盖范围广的降水过程,综合强度更高,对防洪安全影响更大。Taking the annual and monthly maximum one-hour precipitation intensity and its occurrence time as indexes, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the maximum one-hour precipitation in the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGRR) from 1998 to 2020 were explored by using the trend test, period analysis, empirical orthogonal function and comprehensive intensity assessment of precipitation process. The results show that the occurrence time of the maximum one-hour precipitation in the reservoir area moves to the pre-flood period every 10 years, and the maximum one-hour precipitation intensity in the main flood season in July has an 8-year cycle. Compared with that before 2010, the heavy precipitation area in the reservoir area shows a trend of migration from the upstream to the dam site after 2010. The maximum precipitation intensity of one hour is close, but the precipitation process with long duration and wide coverage has higher comprehensive intensity and has more impact on flood control safety.

关 键 词：三峡库区 最大1 h降水量 降水过程综合强度 EOF分析 时空变化 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]