Projection of precipitation extremes over South Asia from CMIP6 GCMs  

作　　者：Adnan ABBAS Asher S BHATTI Safi ULLAH Waheed ULLAH Muhammad WASEEM ZHAO Chengyi DOU Xin Gohar ALI 

机构地区：[1]Land Science Research Center,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China [2]Department of Geology,Bacha Khan University,Charsadda 24420,Pakistan [3]Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences/Institute of Atmospheric Sciences,Fudan University,Shanghai 200438,China [4]Center of Excellence in Water Resources,University of Engineering and Technology,Lahore 54890,Pakistan [5]Pakistan Meteorological Department,Sector H-8/2,Islamabad 44000,Pakistan

出　　处：《Journal of Arid Land》2023年第3期274-296,共23页干旱区科学（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42130405);the Innovative and Entrepreneurial Talent Program of Jiangsu Province(R2020SC04);the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA2006030201);the Research Fund for International Young Scientists of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42150410381).

摘　　要：Extreme precipitation events are one of the most dangerous hydrometeorological disasters,often resulting in significant human and socio-economic losses worldwide.It is therefore important to use current global climate models to project future changes in precipitation extremes.The present study aims to assess the future changes in precipitation extremes over South Asia from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)Global Climate Models(GCMs).The results were derived using the modified Mann-Kendall test,Sen's slope estimator,student's t-test,and probability density function approach.Eight extreme precipitation indices were assessed,including wet days(RR1mm),heavy precipitation days(RR10mm),very heavy precipitation days(RR20mm),severe precipitation days(RR50mm),consecutive wet days(CWD),consecutive dry days(CDD),maximum 5-day precipitation amount(RX5day),and simple daily intensity index(SDII).The future changes were estimated in two time periods for the 21^(st) century(i.e.,near future(NF;2021-2060)and far future(FF;2061-2100))under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5).The results suggest increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation indices under the SSP5-8.5 scenario towards the end of the 21^(st) century(2061-2100).Moreover,from the results of multimodel ensemble means(MMEMs),extreme precipitation indices of RR1mm,RR10mm,RR20mm,CWD,and SDII demonstrate remarkable increases in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation indices shows intensification over the eastern part of South Asia compared to the western part.The probability density function of extreme precipitation indices suggests a frequent(intense)occurrence of precipitation extremes in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,with values up to 35.00 d for RR1mm and 25.00-35.00 d for CWD.The potential impacts of heavy precipitation can pose serious challenges to the study area regarding flooding,soil erosion,water resource management,food se

关 键 词：precipitation extremes extreme precipitation indices climate change Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6) Global Climate Model(GCM) South Asia 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]