多源异构数据贝叶斯变权融合可靠性评估模型  

Reliability evaluation model of multi-source heterogeneous data based on Bayesian variable weight fusion

作　　者：唐莉 程世娟[1] 张晓洁 蒋玉婷 TANG Li;CHENG Shijuan;ZHANG Xiaojie;JIANG Yuting(School of Mathematics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China;The Ministry of Basic,Hope College,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610400,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学数学学院,成都611756 [2]西南交通大学希望学院基础部,成都610400

出　　处：《重庆理工大学学报（自然科学）》2023年第2期272-277,共6页Journal of Chongqing University of Technology：Natural Science

基　　金：四川省川油气科项目(SKB13-08);中国铁路总公司科技研究开发计划项目(2017J003-H);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2682017ZDPY13);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(20XJAZH009);四川省统计科学研究计划项目(2016sc50)。

摘　　要：采用贝叶斯方法构建多源异构变权融合的可靠性评估模型,解决产品在可靠性评估中遇到的小样本数据问题。首先,分析各信息源与现场数据似然函数的尾部梯度特征,通过两者绝对值误差大小,确定各信息源权重;然后,考虑现场试验数据对先验及多源融合的权重影响,基于贝叶斯变权融合方法,得到产品的可靠性分析;最后,通过实例验证了该变权融合模型的合理性和有效性,评估结论优于贝叶斯等权融合的可靠性评估模型。In order to solve the problem of a small number of sample data of products in reliability evaluation,this paper uses a Bayesian method to establish a reliability evaluation model for multi-source heterogeneous variable weight fusion.Firstly,this paper analyzes the tail gradient characteristics of the likelihood function of each information source and field data,and determines the weight of each information source through the absolute value error of the two.Then,considering the influence of the field test data on the weight of prior and multi-source fusion,this paper conducts reliability analysis of the product based on the Bayesian variable weight fusion method.Finally,the example shows that the variable weight fusion model is reasonable and effective,and the evaluation effect is better than the reliability evaluation model of Bayesian equal weight fusion.

关 键 词：多元异构数据 变权融合 贝叶斯估计 可靠性评估 

分 类 号：O213.2[理学—概率论与数理统计] TB114.3[理学—数学]