基于层次分析法的中压配电线路森林火灾故障预警辨识模型  

An early warning evaluation model for forest fire faults in medium-voltage distribution lines based on analytic hierarchy process

作　　者：郭伯森 李天友 王连辉 黄超艺 GUO Bosen;LI Tianyou;WANG Lianhui;HUANG Chaoyi(College of Electrical Engineering and Automation,Xiamen University of Technology,Xiamen 361024,China;State Grid Fujian Electric Power Company,Fuzhou 350001,China;State Grid Quanzhou Power Supply Company,Quanzhou 362101,China)

机构地区：[1]厦门理工学院电气工程与自动化学院,福建厦门361024 [2]国网福建省电力有限公司,福建福州350001 [3]国网福建省电力有限公司泉州供电公司,福建泉州362101

出　　处：《供用电》2023年第3期55-62,共8页Distribution & Utilization

基　　金：国家电网有限公司科技项目(5500-202221138A-1-1-ZN)。

摘　　要：近年来,因森林火灾(山火)引发电力线路故障事件时有发生,给电力系统造成严重影响。针对输电网的山火故障机理分析已有不少的研究成果,而针对配电网的则较少。为了填补现有的中压配电线路山火风险评估方法的缺失,以及传统评估方法中仅围绕气象因素,导致风险指标过于单一的问题,以福建电网的运维数据为基础,提出一种基于层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process,AHP)的10 kV配电线路山火故障预警辨识模型。从故障可能性与严重性两大方面划分层次结构深度剖析,结合专家经验展开判断矩阵的构造并对矩阵进行一致性检验,计算得到各影响因子的权重值,赋以专家系统加权运算得到最终风险得分,最后通过实际案例进行验证。研究成果可对山火故障进行预警并提供合理的应对措施,同时为后续的事故调查、事故责任划分提供辅助参考。In recent years, forest fire faults in distribution lines have remained high, causing serious impacts on the power system.There have been a lot of theoretical research results on hill fire failure mechanisms of the transmission network, but less for the distribution network. In order to fill the lack of existing risk assessment methods for medium voltage distribution lines and the problem that the risk indexes are too single in the traditional assessment methods only around meteorology, based on the operation and maintenance data of the State Grid Fujian Electric Power Company, an early warning and identification system for forest fire faults in 10 kV distribution lines based on AHP is proposed. The model is divided into hierarchical structure depth analysis from two aspects of failure probability and severity. The model combines the expert experience to construct the judgment matrix and check the consistency of the matrix, and calculate the weight value of each influencing factor. Finally, the model is assigned the weighting operation of the expert system to obtain the final score. The research results can provide useful reference for accident investigation andaccident responsibility classification.

关 键 词：中压配电线路 层次分析法 树线矛盾 辨识模型 森林火灾 

分 类 号：TM72[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]