主体功能区划战略下西藏自治区高质量发展演进与协同效应研究  

Research on the evolution and synergy of high-quality development in Tibet Autonomous Region under the dtrategy of main function zoning

作　　者：巩艳红[1] 殷亚男 GONG Yanhong;YIN Yanan(Tibet University,Lhasa City,Tibet Autonomous Region 850000,China)

机构地区：[1]西藏大学,西藏拉萨850000

出　　处：《未来与发展》2023年第2期5-16,共12页Future and Development

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(21MBZ156);西藏大学珠峰学科建设计划项目(zf22003003);西藏大学项目配套与培育项目(ZDTSJH20-03);武汉理工大学-西藏大学“西藏经济社会发展与高原科学研究共建创新基金”(1zt2021005)。

摘　　要：文章以《中国统计年鉴》《西藏自治区统计年鉴》数据为基础,通过Mann-Kendall趋势分析、核密度、脉冲响应函数、ARIMA对西藏自治区高质量发展水平的趋势演进、协同效应进行研究,结果发现:从发展趋势来看,西藏自治区主体功能区战略实施以来,可持续发展与社会协调发展水平增长迅速,经济技术发展水平相对受限,且面对突发冲击,社会协调发展水平更敏感。从协同效应来看,西藏自治区的可持续发展水平与社会协调发展水平存在正向协同,但经济技术无法由可持续和社会协调发展的提高带动,还需要积极的政策引导。Based on the data of China's statistical yearbook and the statistical yearbook of the Tibet Autonomous Region,this paper studies the trend evolution and synergy of the high-quality development level of the Tibet Autonomous Region through Mann Kendall trend analysis,kernel density,impulse response function and ARIMA.The results show that:from the perspective of development trend,since the implementation of the main functional area strategy in Tibet,the level of sustainable development and social coordinated development has increased rapidly,The level of economic and technological development is relatively limited,and in the face of sudden shocks,the level of social coordinated development is more sensitive.From the perspective of synergy,there is a positive synergy between the level of sustainable development and the level of coordinated social development in the Tibet Autonomous Region.However,economic and technological development cannot be driven by the improvement of sustainable and coordinated social development,and active policy guidance is needed.

关 键 词：高质量发展 空间均衡 Mann-Kendall趋势分析 ARIMA 

分 类 号：F239.44[经济管理—会计学] F124[经济管理—国民经济]