通胀—增长权衡和中国菲利普斯曲线的平坦化  

The Inflation-Growth Trade-off and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve in China

作　　者：祝梓翔[1] 高然 ZHU Zixiang;GAO Ran(School of Economics,Sichuan University)

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院,四川成都610065

出　　处：《金融研究》2022年第11期1-20,共20页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(72003139);中国博士后科学基金(2020M673196)资助。

摘　　要：近年来发达经济体出现了菲利普斯曲线平坦化现象,但有关中国的研究尚缺乏共识。本文基于实证和理论分析,系统研究了中国菲利普斯曲线的平坦化问题。首先,结合货币政策冲击和月度SVAR框架,发现通胀的响应程度在2010年后大幅下降。由于证据显示总需求曲线并未平坦化,因此通胀响应弱化可解读为菲利普斯曲线的平坦化。数据显示,菲利普斯曲线平坦化与生产率增长放缓同时发生,因此,本文在标准DSGE模型中引入纵向内生增长渠道,该渠道基于研发投入和知识资本积累,从而使生产率内生于经济周期。研究发现:(1)内生增长渠道放大了需求冲击对产出的影响,但缩小了需求冲击对通胀的影响;(2)内生增长渠道改变通胀和增长之间的替代关系,但不改变边际成本向通胀的传导。分段估计显示,2010年后,通胀和增长的关系弱化是边际成本传导变弱和内生增长渠道变强共同作用的结果。本文认为,由于菲利普斯曲线的平坦化,中央银行应继续坚持稳增长和就业优先战略,关注但不必过于担心由此引发的通胀压力。Stabilizing growth has become a keyword in China's economy.Inflation and growth are the two primary macroeconomic objectives.According to classical macroeconomic theory,there is a trade-off between inflation and growth,at least in the short run,which is represented by the Phillips curve.The ability of central banks to control inflation depends on the strength of this trade-off.However,since the 1990s,there have been signs of a disconnect between inflation and growth in developed economies.One popular explanation for this disconnect is that the Phillips curves of these economies have flattened.This has led to an intense academic debate on whether and why the Phillips curves have flattened.Most studies show that the Phillips curves in developed economies have indeed flattened.However,a few economists disagree.Some studies explore whether China's Phillips curve has also flattened,with mixed results.This study makes the following contributions.First,most studies use partial equilibrium models to directly estimate various Phillips curves for China.However,this approach may suffer from varying degrees of misspecification and lack robustness.We indirectly analyze the trade-off between inflation and growth using demand shocks and a heteroskedastic monthly structural vector autoregressive model.The results show that inflation and output increase with a one-unit monetary policy shock.The inflation-relative response weakens substantially after 2010,with a significant decrease in the Phillips multiplier.In the robustness tests,the effect of economic policy uncertainty shocks on inflation likewise weakens substantially after 2010,and the primary findings hold in the factor model.Next,we exclude the possibility of a flat aggregate demand curve and find that the central bank's anti-inflationary awareness does not increase after 2010.Thus,the weakening inflation response can be interpreted as a flattening of the Phillips curve.Second,considering that the period during which the Phillips curve flattens corresponds to a general sl

关 键 词：菲利普斯曲线 内生增长 货币政策 DSGE模型 

分 类 号：F822.5[经济管理—财政学]