乐观预期、保障能力与商业保险购买——来自中国家庭的微观证据  

Optimism,Protection Ability,and Commercial Insurance:Evidence from China

作　　者：周烁 伏霖 张文韬[1,2,3] 李涛 ZHOU Shuo;FU Lin;ZHANG Wentao;LI Tao(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Information Science&Technology University;School of Economics,Central University of Finance and Economics;China Center of Internet Economy Research,Central University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]北京信息科技大学经济管理学院,北京100192 [2]中央财经大学经济学院,北京100081 [3]中央财经大学中国互联网经济研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《金融研究》2022年第11期136-153,共18页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：北京高等学校卓越青年科学家计划(BJJWZYJH01201910034034);北京市社会科学基金一般项目(16JDYJB038);北京市社会科学基金决策咨询项目(20JCC010、21JCC048)的资助。

摘　　要：本文基于中国家庭微观调查数据,在考虑商业保险“保障”和“投资”双重属性的前提下,实证研究了乐观预期对家庭商业保险购买的影响。结果发现,乐观预期对家庭商业保险购买存在显著的积极影响,即户主乐观预期程度越高,家庭购买商业保险的意愿越强。进一步区分保障型商业保险和投资型商业保险,发现乐观预期对商业保险购买的积极影响主要来自对投资型商业保险的需求,对保障型商业保险购买的影响则不显著。更重要地,不同风险保障能力下乐观预期对商业保险购买存在异质性影响,家庭储蓄较多、社会保障覆盖较好以及社会资本水平较高的家庭,乐观预期对商业保险购买的积极影响更大。本研究不仅有助于从预期视角理解商业保险市场的“有限参与”之谜,也为提升家庭风险保障和财富增值能力提供了借鉴。Insurance is the basic instrument for managing risk in a market economy.It is the bridge that links long-term savings with long-term investment and plays an important role in economic compensation,financial integration,and social management.This study enriches and expands theories on household financial decision-making and provides policy implications for deepening financial market reform and increasing the value-added capacity of commercial insurance and household welfare.Optimism has complex implications for household commercial insurance purchases.With the development of the financial markets,commercial insurance is increasingly moving from“insurance only for protection”to“insurance for both protection and investment”(such as life insurance,universal insurance).Insurance for protection and investment provides investment attributes in terms of returns and dividends and the protection attribute of risk hedging.Optimism from the protection attribute causes individuals to underestimate the probability of unfavorable events and increases their risk appetite,thereby reducing the demand for financial assets with risk protection functions,such as commercial insurance.However,optimism from the investment attribute leads individuals to have more positive expectations about future uncertainty,thereby increasing the demand for financial assets with higher investment returns,such as commercial insurance and stocks.However,the literature does not pay much attention to the intrinsic relationship between optimism and commercial insurance market participation and has not reached a definite conclusion.A few empirical studies mainly focus on the protection attribute of commercial insurance.Most of them find that optimism reduces the willingness of individuals to purchase commercial insurance for protection,while some point out that this impact may be limited.As the related literature ignores the potential impact of optimism when commercial insurance reflects the investment attribute of household asset allocation,the conc

关 键 词：乐观预期 商业保险 保障能力 

分 类 号：F842.6[经济管理—保险]