新冠肺炎疫情对中药材价格的影响研究  

Study on the Impact of the COVID-19 on the Price of Traditional Chinese Medicine

作　　者：原静[1] 冯晓涛 邓绍勇[3] 王美霞 李康琴 Yuan Jing;Feng Xiaotao;Deng Shaoyong;Wang Meixia

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学现代经济管理学院 [2]江西农业大学林学院 [3]江西省林业科学院/国家林业草原栀子工程技术研究中心 [4]华中农业大学园艺林学学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2022年第12期82-85,201,共5页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：中央财政林业科技推广示范项目(项目编号:JXTG[2022]12号);江西省重点研发计划项目(项目编号:20203BBF63024)。

摘　　要：为分析近期中药材市场价格总体上扬现象的本质,了解新冠肺炎疫情对中药材价格波动的影响情况,本文在分析近两年中药材价格涨跌情况的基础上,基于灰色关联度排序和相关性分析等方法对2020年1月至2022年1月共25个月度中药材价格数据进行实证分析。研究结果表明:与新冠新增确诊人数呈正相关的多为清热类药材和止咳化痰平喘类药材,部分如金银花、板蓝根、连翘等清热解毒类中药材的价格波动受新冠肺炎疫情影响最大。然而,中药材综合价格指数的波动与新冠新增确诊人数变化之间的相关性并不显著,表明中药材市场价格总体波动情况受新冠肺炎疫情影响有限。应继承好传统中药,并创新发展利用;鼓励人工种植中药材,实现科学合理可持续利用;加强政府部门的统筹规划,保障中药材产业良性发展。In order to analyze the essence of the recent overall rise in the market price of traditional Chinese medicine, and understand the impact of the COVID-19 on the price fluctuation of traditional Chinese medicine. Based on the analysis of the rise and fall of the price of traditional Chinese medicine in the past two years, this paper empirically analyzes the price data of traditional Chinese medicine in 25 months from January 2020 to January 2022 based on grey correlation ranking and correlation analysis. The research results show that most of the drugs that are positively related to the number of newly confirmed cases of COVID-19 are heat clearing drugs and cough relieving, phlegm resolving and asthma relieving drugs. The price fluctuation of some traditional Chinese medicines that are heat clearing and detoxifying, such as honeysuckle, isatis root, and forsythia suspensa, is most affected by the COVID-19 epidemic. However, the correlation between the fluctuation of the composite price index of Chinese medicinal materials and the change of the number of newly diagnosed patients in COVID-19 is not significant, which indicates that the overall fluctuation of the market price of Chinese medicinal materials is limited by the COVID-19. Traditional Chinese medicine should be inherited and innovatively developed;Encourage the artificial cultivation of traditional Chinese medicine to realize scientific, reasonable and sustainable utilization;Strengthen the overall planning of the government departments to ensure the sound development of the traditional Chinese medicine industry.

关 键 词：新冠肺炎疫情 中药材 中药材价格 相关性分析 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]