Effects of anthropogenic forcing and atmospheric circulation on the record-breaking welt bulb heat event over southern China in September 2021  

作　　者：Dong-Qian WANG Ying SUN 

机构地区：[1]Climate Studies Key Laboratory,National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China [2]Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China

出　　处：《Advances in Climate Change Research》2022年第6期778-786,共9页气候变化研究进展（英文版）

基　　金：National Natural Science Foundation of China(42025503);National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFA0605604)。

摘　　要：In September 2021,southern China witnessed an extreme high-temperature and high-humidity event.The average regional wet bulb globe temperature(WBGT)anomaly(relative to 1961-1990 mean)in 110.0°-120.0°E,27.5°-32.5°N region was the highest on record at 3.28°C and exceeded three times the observed standard deviation.To investigate the underlying causes,we examine the effects of anthropogenic forcings and anomalous circulation patterns on this event using the multi-model ensembles from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6.Results indicate that 2021-like events would happen extremely rarely without anthropogenic warming(would not occur in counterfactual world simulations)and have become a 1-in-16-year event in the factual world.For the threshold of the second most extreme year,the occurrence probability of extreme WBGT events increases approximately 50 times due to the impact of anthropogenic forcings.The effect of anthropogenic warming under similar atmosphere circulation increases the probability of extreme WBGT events by 13-60 times,and that of corresponding circulation patterns under the same anthropogenic warming increases the probability by 1.3-1.8 times.

关 键 词：Extremely high WBGT event Extreme event attribution Anthropogenic influence Circulation effect 

分 类 号：P73[天文地球—海洋科学]