考虑风光不确定性的微网经济风险博弈模型  

Economic risk game model of micro-grid considering wind and photovoltaic uncertainties

作　　者：郑元黎 龚锦霞 梅光银 叶耀 Zheng Yuanli;Gong Jinxia;Mei Guangyin;Ye Yao(Shanghai University of Electric Power,Shanghai 200090,China)

机构地区：[1]上海电力大学,上海200090

出　　处：《电测与仪表》2023年第3期107-114,共8页Electrical Measurement & Instrumentation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51607112)。

摘　　要：微网中风光等可再生能源发电出力的不确定特性会对优化调度产生影响,因此需开展考虑风光出力不确定性的优化策略研究。文章计及风光出力的不确定性,提出一种微网讨价还价博弈模型,并定量定性分析不确定性对于微网优化的影响。为表征可再生能源的不确定性因素,建立风光出力的马尔科夫链模型,结合蒙特卡洛法模拟出大量风光出力场景,进而利用模糊C聚类生成典型场景;提出综合考虑微网运行经济性及风险性的讨价还价博弈模型;应用MATLAB调用IPOPT优化软件实现模型求解,算例验证表明,文章建立的模型提高了风光出力的消纳率,调动了储能机组的积极性,兼顾微网运行的经济性和风险度;描述风光转移概率的特征,分析风光不确定性对微网优化的影响。The uncertain characteristics of power generation output of wind and photovoltaic(PV)and other renewable energy resources in micro-grid will have an impact on optimal dispatch.Therefore,research on optimization strategies that consider the output uncertainty of wind and PV is necessary to be studied.This paper proposes a bargaining game model that takes into account the output uncertainty of wind and PV,and quantitatively analyzes the impact of uncertainty on micro-grid optimization.Firstly,in order to characterize the uncertainties of renewable energy sources,a Markov chain model of wind and PV output is established,and a large number of wind and PV output scenarios are simulated combing with Monte Carlo method,accordingly,the fuzzy C clustering is used to generate typical scenarios.Secondly,a bargaining game model is proposed that comprehensively considers the economics and risks of micro-grid operation.Finally,the MATLAB-IPOPT optimization software is used to solve the model.The case results verify that the proposed model increases the consumption rate of wind and PV output,mobilizes the enthusiasm of energy storage units,takes into account the economic and risk of micro-grid operation,describes the characteristics of the wind and PV transition probability and analyzes the influence of wind and PV uncertainty on micro-grid optimization.

关 键 词：马尔科夫-蒙特卡洛法 风光不确定性 讨价还价博弈 微网 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]