中国城市经济增长不平衡测度、分解与预测——基于“东西”与“南北”的对比研究  

Measurement,decomposition and forecasting of urban economic growth imbalance in China:A comparative study based on“East-West”and“North-South”

作　　者：毕学成 李力 李想[2] BI Xue-cheng;LI Li;LI Xiang

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学(深圳)经济管理学院 [2]三明学院经济管理学院

出　　处：《城市问题》2022年第11期74-83,共10页Urban Problems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(42271177)——“新发展格局下区域极化与协调联动发展机制与调控研究”。

摘　　要：基于城市面板数据,以人口加权平均法、泰尔指数与灰色预测模型对中国城市经济增长不平衡进行了测度、分解与预测。研究发现:2001—2020年,中国城市经济空间格局具有非均衡分布特征,但整体不平衡程度有所下降。城市经济组内不平衡程度高于组间,“东西”与“南北”组内不平衡程度均在下降,且前者高于后者。“东西”组间差距持续减小,“南北”组间差距于2014年开始扩大,目前“东西”组间不平衡程度仍远高于“南北”组间不平衡程度。预测下一阶段中国城市经济增长不平衡的下降幅度将会趋于平缓,“南北”经济增长差距将会如何演变仍具有不确定性。通过对中国区域经济增长不平衡研究提供城市层面证据,为面向中国式现代化的区域政策制定提供新的学术线索。Based on the urban panel data,the population-weighted average method,Thayer coefficient and gray prediction model are used to measure,decompose and forecast the urban economic imbalance in China.It is found that:From 2001 to 2020,the spatial pattern of China’s urban economy has the characteristics of unbalanced distribution,and the overall degree of imbalance has decreased.The degree of imbalance within urban economic groups is higher than that between groups,and the degree of imbalance within“East-West”and“North-South”groups are both decreasing,and the former is higher than the latter.The gap between“East and West”groups continues to decrease,while the gap between“North and South”economies began to widen in 2014,and the degree of imbalance between“East and West”groups is still much higher than that between“North and South”groups.The imbalance between the“North and South”groups is still much higher than the imbalance between the“East and West”groups.It is predicted that the decline of economic imbalance in China’s cities will level off in the next stage,and there is still uncertainty about how the“North-South”gap will evolve.The article provides city-level evidence for the study of regional imbalances in China,and provides new academic clues for the formulation of regional policies for Chinese-style modernization.

关 键 词：城市经济 不平衡 东西差距 南北差距 预测 

分 类 号：F299.21[经济管理—国民经济]