中美贸易不平衡与全球价值链  

The China-US Trade Imbalance and Global Value Chains

作　　者：邢予青 孟渤[2,3] 高宇宁 Xing Yuqing;Meng Bo;Gao Yuning(National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies,Japan;Institute of Developing Economies,Japan External Trade Organi-zation;School of Low Carbon Economics,Hubei University of Economics;School of Public Policy and Management,Tsinghua University)

机构地区：[1]日本政策研究大学院大学 [2]日本亚洲经济研究所 [3]湖北经济学院碳排放权交易省部共建协同创新中心 [4]清华大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2023年第1期3-15,共13页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“绿色转型视角下中国深度融入全球低碳经济治理机制研究”(21AZD067);日本亚洲经济研究所项目“转型中的全球价值链第三期”(ROB220422006)资助。

摘　　要：中美之间的巨额贸易不平衡一直是困扰两国贸易关系的热点问题。传统分析主要从人民币汇率、美国低储蓄率以及特里芬悖论探讨这一问题。本文认为,除了以上因素,按照传统贸易统计测算的中美贸易不平衡本身存在严重失真。这种情况主要是由传统贸易统计的前提假设与以全球价值链为基础的现代贸易不一致引起的。传统贸易统计以货物跨越本国国境为前提,而在全球价值链时代,货物跨境已不再是贸易实现的必要条件。跨国企业无工厂的制造方式,以及通过对外直接投资进入他国市场的销售方式已经成为全球价值链贸易的典型特征和普遍现象。鉴于此,本文提出了基于全球价值链特征的“要素收入贸易”这一新概念。根据这一概念,美国对中国的出口被定义为用来满足中国最终需求的美国的要素收入。本文的实证研究发现:基于“要素收入贸易”核算的中国对美国的贸易顺差,比以传统总值贸易统计的结果和以增加值贸易统计为基础的结果分别低32%和17%。这主要是由于现存的贸易统计仍然遵循属地而非属权原则,不仅夸大了中国对美国的出口,也低估了美国对中国的出口。“要素收入贸易”这一概念的提出有利于将贸易的标签从传统的“在某国制造”改为“由某国创造”。The vast trade imbalance between China and the United States has been a hot issue plaguing the trade rela-tions between the two countries. This paper argues that this situation is mainly caused by the inconsistency between the assump-tions of traditional trade statistics and modern trade based on global value chains. While conventional trade statistics are pre-mised on goods crossing the borders, they are no longer necessary for trade realization in the era of global value chains. Thefactory-less manufacturing method of multinational enterprises and the sales method of entering other countries’ marketsthrough foreign direct investment have become typical features and prevalent phenomena of global value chain trade.Given this, this paper proposes a new concept of “Trade in Factor Income”based on the characteristics of global valuechains. According to this theory, US exports to China are defined as the US factor income used to meet China’s final demand.This paper constructs a long series global input-output model based on the OECD’s AMNE-ICIO database from 2005 to 2016that considers firm heterogeneity and a bilateral FDI stock database covering 20 sectors in 35 countries.The empirical study finds that China’s trade surplus with the US based on “Trade in Factor Income” is 32% lower thanthe results based on traditional gross trade statistics and 17% lower than the results based on “Trade in Value Added”. Thisis mainly because traditional trade statistics are still based on the territoriality principle, which overstates China’s exports tothe US and underestimates US exports to China. The scientific measurement of bilateral trade between China and the UnitedStates is vital to resolving bilateral trade disputes, comprehensively assessing the extent to which the United States benefitsfrom trade with China, and promoting bilateral trade cooperation.

关 键 词：中美贸易 要素收入 全球价值链 跨国企业 投入产出分析 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]