迁移政策对农村人力资本投资的影响——来自中国户籍改革的证据  

The Impact of Migration Policies on Rural Human Capital Investment: Evidence from Hukou Reforms in China

作　　者：王丽莉 吴京燕 Wang Lili;Wu Jingyan(School of Economics,Nankai University)

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院

出　　处：《劳动经济研究》2022年第5期3-22,共20页Studies in Labor Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“新型城镇化背景下户籍制度改革与劳动力空间配置效率研究”(批准号:20CJL033)的资助。

摘　　要：本文将2001-2015年城市户籍改革与早期移民网络相结合,构建了外生于农村人口流出地的迁移机会指标,利用人口普查微观样本,估计了迁移政策对农村人力资本投资的影响,并基于农村固定观察点数据探索内在机制。结果显示,乡城迁移机会增加对农村人口的高中入学率具有显著负向影响。内在机制包括两方面:第一,其他家庭成员流出促使农村青少年更多参与家庭生产,对教育投资产生挤出效应;第二,外出务工回报率提高,继续接受教育的机会成本上升,农村青少年自身选择在初中毕业后外出务工而放弃接受高中教育。研究表明,相关政策需要提升预期教育回报率,缓解人口迁移对农村教育投资的负面影响,从而为实施乡村振兴战略提供坚实的人力资本之基。This paper constructs a migration opportunity index exogenous to rural areas by combining urban Hukou reforms in 2001-2015 with earlier migration networks, and then studies the impact of migration policy changes on rural human capital investment using population census microdata. The paper also explores the mechanism based on data collected in fixed rural observation spots. Results show that increases in migration opportunities have a significantly negative effect on rural population’s high school enrollment. Mechanism analyses find two channels. First, the outflow of family members induces more rural youths to participate in household production, thus crowding out education investment. The other one is that, rural youths prefer to become migrants themselves after graduating from junior high school, since the opportunity costs of continuing senior high school or further education are higher as the return to migration rises. This paper suggests that relevant policies should aim at improving the expected return to education and alleviating the negative impact of migration on education investment in rural areas, so as to build a talent pool for the implementation of rural revitalization strategies.

关 键 词：户籍改革 移民网络 农村人力资本 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济] D631.42[政治法律—政治学]