高等教育溢价变动的新趋势与解释——以流动人口为例  

New Trends and Explanations of Higher Education Premium: An Analysis for Chinese Migrants

作　　者：鄢伟波 Yan Weibo(School of Public Finance and Taxation,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学财政税务学院

出　　处：《劳动经济研究》2022年第5期23-54,共32页Studies in Labor Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“新就业形态劳动权益保障研究”(批准号:22YJC790150);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“新型城镇化进程中户籍改革的劳动力区域再配置效应:动力机制、经济影响与政策优化研究”(批准号:72203028);中央高校基本科研业务费项目“灵活就业人员社保缴费问题研究:规模测算、生成机制、行为动机与政策优化”(批准号:2722022BY005)的资助。

摘　　要：本文以流动人口为例,研究发现2011年以来高等教育溢价呈现持续降低趋势,本科或专科相对于高中学历的年均教育溢价由2011年的8.18%下降到2017年的4.65%。从供给层面解释高等教育溢价变动,最小二乘估计会因为遗漏变量,低估高等教育供给对溢价的影响。本文利用同一流出地流动人口在流入地集聚的特征,构造工具变量缓解内生性问题,发现特定年龄段流动人口高等教育相对供给每增加10%,高等教育溢价降低约1.3%~3%,高等教育供给至少解释了一半以上的高等教育溢价变动。进一步探究高等教育回报的溢出效应,本文发现特大城市即使存在工资溢价,也面临更高的住房租金,高等教育劳动者在不同规模城市的收支比趋于均衡。本文揭示了高等教育溢价变动的新趋势与机理,为劳动者教育投资决策和高等教育政策调整提供了新的启示。This study finds a significant decline in the college premium by examining data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey from 2011 to 2017. The wage premium of college-educated laborers,compared to those with middle and high school education,declines from 8. 18 percent to 4. 65percent during the period. An instrumental variable is constructed to deal with endogeneity of the relative supply of college-educated laborers. Analysis on the substitution elasticity between collegeeducated laborers and high school equivalents shows that a 10 percent increase in college-educated labor supply is associated with a decline of the college premium by 1. 3 percent to 3 percent. The surplus of the college-educated laborers at least accounts for more than half of the decline of the college premium. A possible spillover effect of higher education is also discussed. Even if collegeeducated laborers enjoy higher college premiums in cities with higher proportion of well-educated,they have to face higher housing costs. As a result,the income-expenditure ratio is similar across cities of different scales. This paper is expected to invoke more discussions in higher education expansion,education investment,and migration decision.

关 键 词：高等教育供给 教育回报率 流动人口 溢出效应 

分 类 号：G649.2[文化科学—高等教育学]