基于自适应SMPC的梯级水-风-光互补系统多目标优化调度  

Multi-objective optimal scheduling for hydro-wind-photovoltaic system based on adaptive stochastic model predictive control

作　　者：冯哲飞 霍志红[1] 魏赏赏 许昌[1] 薛飞飞 郭琛良 Feng Zhefei;Huo Zhihong;Wei Shangshang;Xu Chang;Xue Feifei;Guo Chenliang(College of Energy and Electrical Engineering of Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;College of Energy and Electrical Engineering of Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学能源与电气学院,江苏南京211100 [2]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《可再生能源》2023年第3期352-360,共9页Renewable Energy Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(52106238);江苏省政策类引导计划(BZ2021019);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(B210201018)。

摘　　要：为抑制风电、光伏的波动性,文章建立了梯级水-风-光互补系统的多目标优化调度模型,同时考虑了调度成本与水电出力波动性,提出了一种基于自适应随机模型预测控制的梯级水-风-光高效协调优化方法。该方法利用场景削减技术,进一步抑制风光出力不确定性,并采用自适应变权重方法自动调整多目标权重系数。文章比较了方法改进前、后以及梯级水电站数量对互补系统优化调度结果的影响。系统仿真表明,所提自适应(Stochastic Model Predictive Control,SMPC)方法,可有效抑制风电、光伏的不确定性与波动性,提高水电出力的可靠性与稳定性.The hydro-wind-photovoltaic hybrid system employs cascaded hydropower stations to suppress the fluctuation of the wind and photovoltaic power stations,which plays an important role in improving the consumption of new energy and friendly operation of grid.This paper first establishes a multi-objective optimal dispatching model for the hy-dro-wind-photovoltaic hybrid system,taking the dispatching cost and the fluctuation of hydropower output into ac-count.Afterwards an adaptive stochastic model predictive control(SMPC)operation strategy is proposed to coor-dinate hydropower with wind and photovoltaic power generation efficiently.The scene reduction technology is used to further suppress the uncertainty of wind and solar,and the adaptive variable weight method is used to adjust the multi-objective weight coefficients.The effects of method before and after improvement and different number of cas-caded hydropower stations on the optimal dispatching results of hybrid system is also compared.The simulation of system shows that the cascaded hydropower has a good ability to shave peaks and fill valleys.In addition,the in-crease of the number of cascaded hydropower stations will improve the flexible operation ability of hydropower under the condition of the same capacity.Adaptive SMPC can effectively suppress the uncertainty and fluctuation of wind and photovoltaic power generation compared with the traditional method,and improve the reliability and stability of hydropower’s output.The methods and results of the work have certain reference significance for the optimal schedul-ing of the hydro-wind-photovoltaic hybrid system.

关 键 词：梯级水电 水-风-光互补 自适应随机模型预测控制 多目标优化 

分 类 号：TK81[动力工程及工程热物理—流体机械及工程] TK51