我国人口老龄化对旅游业发展的影响研究  

The Research on the Impact of Chinese Population Aging on Tourism Development

作　　者：赵磊[1] 潘婷婷 Zhao Lei;Pan Tingting(School of Management,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310014,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江工业大学管理学院,浙江杭州310014

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第2期74-87,共14页Journal of Ocean University of China(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“旅游业与农村贫困减缓:理论分析与实证”(22FGLB070);浙江省哲学社会科学规划项目“中国旅游业与经济增长关系研究:基于内生增长理论的实证考察”(22ZJQN18YB);浙江工业大学基本科研业务费“优秀青年学者”专项(GB202202004)。

摘　　要：人口老龄化已然成为当前社会经济发展面临的重大问题,老年消费市场衍生出的巨大旅游需求将为国内旅游业发展带来新的机遇与挑战,如何有效协调人口老龄化与旅游业发展的良性互动关系,切实推进老年旅游业发展,进一步发挥老年旅游经济增长潜力,是解决我国人口老龄化快速发展问题的关键。基于2008—2018年面板数据,分析人口老龄化与旅游业发展之间的动态发展关系,设定人均GDP作为门槛变量,实证检验人口老龄化对旅游业发展水平影响的门槛效应,探析人口老龄化在不同经济发展水平下对旅游经济增长的促进效应的内在联系和作用机理。结果表明,中国省际人口老龄化程度整体上呈现持续加深,各区域变化存在不均衡特征;人口老龄化对旅游业发展水平存在显著的正向积极作用,区域层面上存在部分差异;受地区经济发展水平的制约,人口老龄化对旅游业发展的影响表现出区域异质的非线性门槛特征。在全国层面,人口老龄化对旅游业发展水平的促进作用存在基于经济发展水平的双重门槛效应,但随着经济发展水平的提升,人口老龄化对旅游业发展的正向影响会逐渐减弱;而在区域层面,东、中、西部地区都呈现出不同方向、不同程度的影响效应。Population aging has become a major problem facing the current social and economic development.The huge tourism demand derived from the elderly consumer market will bring new opportunities and challenges to the development of domestic tourism.How to effectively coordinate the benign interaction between population aging and tourism development,seriously promote the development of tourism for the elderly,and further develop the potential of economic growth of tourism for the elderly is the key to solving the problem of rapid development of population aging in China.Based on the panel data from 2008 to 2018,the paper analyzes the dynamic development relationship between population aging and tourism development,and sets per capita GDP as a threshold variable to empirically test the threshold effect of population aging on the level of tourism development,and explores the internal relationship and mechanism of the promoting effect of population aging on tourism economic growth under different economic development levels.The results show that the degree of inter-provincial population aging in China continues to deepen as a whole,and there are unbalanced characteristics in regional changes;population aging has a significant positive effect on the level of tourism development,and there are some differences at the regional level;restricted by the level of regional economic development,the impact of population aging on tourism development shows non-linear threshold characteristics of regional heterogeneity.At the national level,the promoting effect of population aging on the level of tourism development has double threshold effect based on the level of economic development,but with the improvement of economic development,the positive impact of population aging on tourism development will gradually weaken;at the regional level,the eastern,central and western regions have shown different directions and different degrees of impact.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 旅游业 门槛效应 经济发展水平 区域异质性 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学] F592