基于DPSIR模型的黄河流域生态安全评价及影响因素研究  

Ecological Safety Evaluation and Influencing Factors of Yellow River Basin Based on DPSIR Model

作　　者：吴艳霞 魏志斌 王爱琼 Wu Yanxia;Wei Zhibin;Wang Aiqiong(School of Economics and Management,Xi’an University of Technology,Xi’an,Shaanxi 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2022年第6期322-331,共10页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“新发展阶段黄河流域生态安全评价、预警及实现机制研究”(21BJY169)。

摘　　要：[目的]对黄河流域生态安全进行评价并分析其影响因素,为促进黄河流域生态高质量发展和实施黄河国家战略提供理论依据。[方法]基于DPSIR模型构建生态安全指标体系,运用熵权-TOPSIS法对2011—2020年黄河流域沿线省域生态安全进行评价,并利用BP-DEMATEL模型剖析生态安全关键因素。[结果]①黄河流域生态安全整体水平较低但呈缓慢上升的态势,10 a来生态安全指数均值未超过0.4,但从2011年的0.322逐步上升至2020年的0.365。②各省区生态安全呈现上升、波动和衰退3种演变态势,生态安全指数均值从高到低依次为:山东(0.431)、四川(0.372)、内蒙古(0.371)、河南(0.362)、山西(0.349)、宁夏(0.343)、陕西(0.326)、甘肃(0.302)、青海(0.301)。③BP-DEMATEL结果表明,生态安全呈上升态势的省域关键因素分散于压力指标层外,呈波动和衰退态势的省域关键因素分别集中分布在影响和压力指标层。[结论]黄河流域生态安全整体呈现良性的演变态势,但区域发展不均衡,各省域应围绕关键因素实施调控。[Objective]The ecological safety of the Yellow River basin was evaluated and the influencing factors were analyzed in order to promote high-quality ecological development of the Yellow River basin and to implement the“Yellow River National Strategy”.[Methods]An ecological safety index system was constructed based on the DPSIR model.The entropy weight-TOPSIS method was used to comprehensively evaluate the ecological safety of the provinces along the Yellow River basin from 2011 to 2020.The BP-DEMATEL model was used to analyze the key factors of ecological safety.[Results]①The overall level of ecological safety in the Yellow River basin was low,but showed a slow upward trend.The average ecological safety index was no more than 0.4 in the past 10 years,but has gradually increased from 0.322 in 2011 to 0.365 in 2020.②The ecological safety of each province showed three evolutionary trends of rising,fluctuating,and declining.The average ecological safety indexes,from high to low,were:Shandong(0.431),Sichuan(0.372),Inner Mongolia(0.371),He’nan(0.362),Shanxi(0.349),Ningxia(0.343),Shaanxi(0.326),Gansu(0.302),Qinghai(0.301).③The BP-DEMATEL results showed that the key factors of the provinces with upward trends of ecological safety were scattered outside the pressure index layer.The key factors of the provinces with fluctuating and declining trends were concentrated in the impact and pressure index layers,respectively.[Conclusion]The ecological safety of the Yellow River basin as a whole showed a benign evolution trend,but regional development was unbalanced.Provinces should implement regulation and control around key factors.

关 键 词：生态安全 DPSIR模型 熵权-TOPSIS法 BP-DEMATEL模型 关键因素 

分 类 号：F124.3[经济管理—世界经济]