中国农产品对外贸易的空间集聚效应研究  

Research on the spatial agglomeration of agricultural products trade in China

作　　者：赵恩 李明权[1] ZHAO En;LI Ming-quan(School of Management,Qingdao Agricultural University,Qingdao266109,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛农业大学管理学院,山东青岛266109

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2023年第1期188-195,共8页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：2019年山东省专业学位研究生案例库建设项目(SDYAL19137)。

摘　　要：基于中国31个省2010—2019年的面板数据,采用空间自相关性检验方法和空间计量模型,对中国农产品贸易的空间集聚效应及影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明,中国各省之间的农产品贸易存在空间集聚效应,且近几年空间集聚程度在逐渐增强,对于高-高聚集的省份来说存在空间溢出效应;机械化水平、农村居民收入、道路网密度对中国农产品贸易正向关系显著,而各省份地理位置则与其存在显著的负向关系;通过牛类存栏量对农产品贸易的显著正相关反映出农业碳排放问题对于贸易的潜在威胁未得到重视。针对以上问题,提出加强省际区域联动,加强创新、因地制宜提高生产率,改善低碳牧畜业的发展等建议。Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2010 to 2019,the spatial autocorrelation test method and spatial econometric model were used to empirically analyze the spatial agglomeration effect and influencing factors of agricultural trade in China.The results showed that the spatial agglomeration effect existed in Chinese agricultural trade between the provinces,and the degree of spatial agglomeration gradually enhanced in recent years,and there would be spatial spillover effects for provinces with high-high aggregation;the level of mechanization,rural residents’income,the density of road network had a significant positive relationship with agricultural products trade in China,while the geographical location of each province had a significant negative relationship with it;the significant positive correlation between cattle stocks and agricultural trade reflected that the potential threat of agricultural carbon emissions to trade had not been taken seriously.In view of the above problems,some suggestions were put forward to strengthen inter-provincial and regional linkage,strengthen innovation,improve productivity according to local conditions,and improve the development of low-carbon livestock industry.

关 键 词：中国农产品贸易 空间计量模型 空间集聚效应 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F752