基于中尺度气象模型的大连市热浪预测(2050s)及适应性规划策略  

Heatwave Projections(2050s)and Adaptive Planning Strategies based on Mesoscale Meteorological Model for Dalian

作　　者：郭飞[1] 赵君 董菁 王时原[1] 南鹏飞 张弘驰 GUO Fei;ZHAO Jun;DONG Jing;WANG Shiyuan;NAN Pengfei;ZHANG Hongchi

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学建筑与艺术学院 [2]绿城中国中原区域公司

出　　处：《西部人居环境学刊》2023年第1期52-59,共8页Journal of Human Settlements in West China

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费项目(DUT21RW204);国家社会科学基金(18BGL233);中国博士后科学基金第72批面上基金(2022M720642)。

摘　　要：近年来热浪已成为危害城市公共卫生安全的极端天气事件之一,通过气候情景预测掌握未来热浪风险的时空格局,是保证气候适应性策略前瞻性和科学性的重要途径。基于中尺度气象模型(Weather Research and Forecasting model,WRF)对大连城市气候远景预测(2041—2050年)的结果,将研究区域进行热浪风险评估并提出气候适应性策略。结果表明高风险区出现在甘井子区东北部、西岗区北部、沙河口区北部、中山区北部以及金州区中部。基于风险分区气候适应性策略分为两大类:总体策略和分区策略。总体策略包括城市“冷岛”保护和高温避灾场所策略。分区策略则主要针中高风险区展开,重点将高风险区划分为三类策略区,并明确指出气候适应性策略的优先行动区。Heatwaves have become one of the extreme weather events that endanger public health and safety in cities.Currently,climate scenario projections to capture the spatial and temporal patterns of future heatwave risk are important ways to ensure that climate adaptation strategies are forwardlooking and scientific.Furthermore,heat-related mortality in cold regions is likely to increase significantly due to the lack of experiences in heatwave management.For these reasons,this study uses the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model for future long-term projections(2041-2050)in Dalian,a city in a cold region,as an example of a heatwave risk assessment for the study area.It’s expected taht the study will provide a reference case for the development of adaptation strategies for heatwave events in other cold regions.This study is divided into three steps:1)the WRF was used to make climate projections for the long term(2041-2050);2)the spatial distribution of heatwave exposure was calculated;3)the adaptation planning strategy based on the results of the study was developed.The prediction experiments are divided into two groups:Test1 is a time-by-time simulation of a typical month of the current meteorological year(2005)and the simulation results are compared with weather station observations to verify the accuracy of the WRF model;Test2 is a time-by-time prediction of temperature for a typical meteorological month from 2041 to 2050.August was chosen as the typical meteorological month,which has the highest temperatures and high frequency of heatwave.The results of Test1 showed a correlation value of up to 0.9 between the simulated and measured data,and the correctness of the WRF model was demonstrated.The results of Test2 were tabulated using GIS to obtain the number of heatwave days and the average temperature during the heatwave for August from 2041to 2050.The average temperature increase in August in summer over the last 50 years in Dalian shows a clear linear trend,with an overall upward trend.The results show that 8

关 键 词：热浪风险 远景预测 气候适应性策略 

分 类 号：TU986[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]