基于社会网络分析方法的二氧化碳地质封存风险传染特征研究  

Risk Transmission Characteristics of Carbon Dioxide Geological Storage Based on Social Network Analysis

作　　者：景萌 刘桂臻[1,2] 李琦 许晓艺[1,2] 李小春 JING Meng;LIU Guizhen;LI Qi;XU Xiaoyi;LI Xiaochun(State Key Laboratory of Geomechanics and Geotechnical Engineering,Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Wuhan 430071,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院武汉岩土力学研究所,岩土力学与工程国家重点实验室,武汉430071 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《高校地质学报》2023年第1期100-109,共10页Geological Journal of China Universities

基　　金：山西省重点研发计划项目(202102090301009);宁夏二氧化碳地质封存调查、试验与示范项目第三方地质服务项目二标段(TZZD/NZC220120C)联合资助。

摘　　要：二氧化碳(CO_(2))地质封存技术作为深度减排不可或缺的必要手段,对保护生态环境、推动全球中长期应对气候变化的国际合作以及推进社会绿色、循环、低碳发展具有重要意义。文章总结了二氧化碳地质封存项目全生命周期中可能出现的46个风险因素,运用社会网络分析方法构建风险网络关系模型,对二氧化碳地质封存项目风险因素间的传递作用关系进行了研究。通过风险网络整体与局部参数分析确定风险传递过程中的关键起始节点、关键致险节点、关键传递节点等关键因素,识别出三条潜在风险传递链:(1)地质灾害风险→CO_(2)供应、注入或运输意外中断风险→预期外的建设或操作成本变化风险;(2)操作人员知识不足或无相应资质风险→人为泄漏风险→项目对环境的破坏风险→公众参与风险→预期外的建设或操作成本变化风险;(3)部门协调不当风险→人才招聘和管理风险→操作人员知识不足或无相应资质风险→预期外的建设或操作成本变化风险。研究旨在为二氧化碳地质封存项目风险研究提供理论创新与技术参考,进而促进CO_(2)捕集、利用与封存项目的健康发展。As an essential and necessary means for emission reduction,carbon dioxide geological storage technology is of great significance for ecological and environmental protection,promotes international cooperation on global medium and long-term climate changes,and advances green,recycling and low-carbon development.This study summarizes 46 risk factors that may emerge throughout a lifecycle of carbon dioxide geological storage projects.A risk network relationship model was created using the social network analysis method to investigate the transmission relationship between risk factors associated with carbon dioxide geological storage projects.By analyzing the of overall local risk network parameters,this study identifies key factors such as key initial node,key risk-causing node,and key transmission node in the risk transmission processes.The following three potential risk transmission chains are identified:(1)Geologic hazard→Unexpected disruptions of CO_(2)supply,access or transportation→Unexpected changes in construction or operation costs;(2)Insufficient knowledge of an operator or lack of corresponding qualification→Man-made leakage→Environmental damage of the project→Public participation→Unexpected construction or operation cost changes;(3)Improper departmental coordination→Talent recruitment and management risk→Operator’s lack of knowledge or lack of corresponding qualification→Unexpected construction or operation cost changes.The findings of this study can serve as a theoretical and technical reference for risk research in carbon dioxide geological sequestration projects and promote the healthy development of carbon dioxide capture,utilization and storage(CCUS)projects.

关 键 词：CCUS 社会网络分析 二氧化碳地质封存 风险因素 风险传递 

分 类 号：X701[环境科学与工程—环境工程]