2011—2021年连云港市肾综合征出血热流行病学特征分析  

Epidemiological characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Lianyungang city from 2011 to 2021

作　　者：郑艳泽 赵兴[1] 李海朋[1] 陈玉格 吕福荣 牟靖男 梁晓雷[1] 许雷[1] ZHENG Yan-ze;ZHAO Xing;LI Hai-peng;CHEN Yu-ge;LV Fu-rong;MU Jing-nan;LIANG Xiao-lei;XU Lei(Lianyungang Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Lianyungang,Jiangsu 222003,China)

机构地区：[1]连云港市疾病预防控制中心,江苏222003

出　　处：《应用预防医学》2023年第1期7-10,共4页Applied Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的掌握江苏省连云港市居民肾综合征出血热(HFRS)的流行病学特征,为疫情风险评估、科学防控、卫生决策等提供客观依据。方法收集2011—2021年连云港市HFRS监测数据,采用描述性流行病学方法进行特征分析,其中地区分布采用聚类法分析,季节性特征采用集中度法、圆分布法分析,发病率趋势采用Joinpoint回归模型分析。结果2011—2021年连云港市HFRS报告发病率为1.6/10万,男性报告发病率为2.34/10万,高于女性报告发病率(0.84/10万),差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=171.68,P<0.05);60岁~年龄组发病率为3.97/10万,30岁~、45岁~以及60岁~3个年龄组的合计发病数为687例(87.40%);职业分布以农民为主(623例,85.50%)。报告发病数前3名的地区依次为灌云县、海州区、东海县;HFRS发病率聚类分析结果显示,灌云县、连云区、海州区为发病高风险地区。HFRS发病具有一定季节性特征,计算得出发病高峰日为11月9日、高峰期为10月2日~1月25日。2011—2021年连云港市HFRS发病率平均年度变化百分比(Average annual percent change,AAPC)=-10.10%(95%CI:-18.7%--0.60%),发病率呈下降趋势,差异有统计学意义(t=-4.20,P<0.05)。结论2011—2021年连云港市HFRS发病率总体呈下降趋势,但在青壮年男性群体及农民群体中发病风险较高,今后应持续加强监测并采取相应干预措施,降低当地HFRS传播风险。Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS)among residents of Lianyungang city,Jiangsu province,and provide objective basis for epidemic risk assessment,scientific prevention and control,and health decision-making.Methods The surveillance data of HFRS in Lianyungang city from 2011 to 2021 were collected and descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the characteristics,regional distribution was analyzed by clustering method,and seasonal characteristics were analyzed by the concentration method and circular distribution method,and the incidence trend was analyzed by Joinpoint regression model.Results From 2011to 2021,the reported incidence of HFRS in Lianyungang city was 1.6/100000,and the reported incidence rate of men was 2.34/100000,which was higher than women(0.84/100000),and the difference was statistically significant(χ^(2)=171.68,P<0.05).The incidence rate of the 60-year-old-age group was 3.97/100000,and the total incidence of the 30-year-old,45-year-old,and 60-year-old was 687 cases(87.40%);the occupational distribution was dominated by farmers(623 cases,85.50%).The top three areas with reported incidences were Guanyun county,Haizhou district,and Donghai county.The cluster analysis results of HFRS incidence showed that Guanyun county,Lianyun district,and Haizhou district were high-risk areas.The incidence of HFRS had certain seasonal characteristics.According to the calculation,the peak incidence date was November 9,and the peak period was October 2 to January 25.From 2011 to 2021,the average annual percent change of HFRS in Lianyungang city(AAPC)=-10.10%(95%CI:-18.7%--0.60%),the incidence rate showed a downward trend,the difference was statistically significant(t=-4.20,P<0.05).Conclusions From 2011 to 2021,the incidence of HFRS in Lianyungang city showed a generally downward trend,but the risk of the disease was higher among young and middle-aged men and farmers.In the future,surveillance should be continuously strengthened and

关 键 词：肾综合征出血热 流行病学特征 集中度法 圆分布法 聚类分析 Joinpoint回归模型 

分 类 号：R195.4[医药卫生—卫生统计学]