东北地区人口收缩的经济效应与对策响应  

A Study on the Economic Effects and Countermeasure Responses of Population Shrinkage in Northeast China

作　　者：李秀霞[1] 崔永静 陈奇 刘春艳[1] 李辉[2] LI Xiuxia;CUI Yongjing;CHEN Qi;LIU Chunyan;LI Hui(College of Tourism and Geography Science,Jilin Normal University,Siping 136000,China;China Center for Northeast Asian Studies,Jilin University,Changchun 130000,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林师范大学旅游与地理科学学院,吉林四平136000 [2]吉林大学东北亚研究中心,吉林长春130000

出　　处：《人口与经济》2023年第1期71-86,共16页Population & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“中国东北人口现象研究”(21ARK003);吉林省社会科学基金项目“东北地区城市人口收缩的经济效应与对策研究”(2022B109)。

摘　　要：东北地区人口收缩问题具有典型性,全面审视东北地区人口收缩空间格局,科学判断人口收缩程度,探讨人口收缩的经济效应具有重要意义。从人口收缩内涵入手,利用收缩指数对2009—2020年东北地区34个地级市及以上城市进行人口收缩的测度,利用空间自相关分析其空间相关性,并运用多元回归分析探究人口收缩的经济效应。结果表明:东北地区除长春市、沈阳市和大连市外,其他91.18%的城市均存在不同程度的人口收缩现象,资源枯竭型城市是人口收缩最典型的区域;东北地区城市人口收缩空间差异显著,呈现由南向北递增趋势;“高—高”集聚区主要分布在南部哈—大经济带,“低—低”集聚区位于北部资源枯竭型城市,少数“低—高”集聚区主要位于“高—高”集聚区外围,没有形成明显集聚中心;城市人口收缩“高—高”集聚区与“低—低”集聚区随时间变化呈现出“南北”分异现象;沈阳市和大连市是未来东北地区人口集聚的集中区域;东北地区人口收缩引起负面的经济效应;科教投入水平在沿海型和资源型城市对经济产出率的影响作用力相反;人口收缩制约了经济密度、就业密度、能源供应水平的提高,加深了人口老龄化程度。据此,应科学制定人口发展战略、明确精明收缩的发展理念、积极融入城市群以及优化产业结构等,寻求人口收缩地区城市发展的新出路。The problem of population shrinkage in Northeast China is typical,and it is of great significance to comprehensively review the spatial pattern of population shrinkage in Northeast China,scientifically judge the degree of population shrinkage,and explore the economic effects of population shrinkage.Starting from the connotation of population shrinkage,this paper uses the shrinkage index to measure and identify population shrinkage in 34 prefecture-level cities and above in Northeast China from 2009 to 2020,which analyzes its spatial correlation by using spatial autocorrelation,and uses multiple regression analysis to explore the economic effects of population shrinkage.The results show that:1)91.18%of the cities in Northeast China except Changchun,Shenyang and Dalian have different degrees of population shrinkage,and resource-depleted cities are the most typical areas of population shrinkage;2)The spatial difference of urban population shrinkage in Northeast China is significant,showing an increasing trend from south to north;3)The“high-high”agglomeration area is mainly in the southern Harbin-Dalian economic belt,and the“low-low”agglomeration area is located in the northern resource-depleted city,and a small number of“low-high”agglomeration areas are mainly on the periphery of the“high-high”agglomeration area,and no obvious agglomeration centers have been formed;4)The“high-high”agglomeration area and the“low-low”agglomeration area of urban population shrinkage show the phenomenon of“north-south”differentiation with time;5)Shenyang and Dalian are the concentrated areas of population concentration in the northeast region in the future;6)The population shrinkage in the northeast region has caused negative economic effects;7)The level of investment in science and education has the opposite influence on economic output rate in coastal and resource-based cities;8)Population shrinkage restricts the improvement of economic density,employment density and energy supply level,and deepens the degr

关 键 词：人口收缩 经济效应 空间自相关 人口收缩—城市经济模型 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]