养老保险对储蓄率的非线性影响及人口老龄化的门槛效应——基于PSTR模型的分析  

Nonlinear Effects of Pension Insurance on Saving Rate and Threshold Effects of Population Aging: Analysis Based on PSTR Model

作　　者：王颖 刘心慧 WANG Ying;LIU Xinhui(School of Government,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学政府管理学院,北京100875

出　　处：《人口与经济》2023年第1期106-119,共14页Population & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“人口结构转变的经济影响及其替代因素研究”(18BRK002)。

摘　　要：使用2000—2018年省级面板数据,运用平滑转移模型探讨了养老保险参保率、替代率与储蓄率间的非线性关系,以及人口老龄化程度在三者之间的门槛效应。根据PSTR模型的线性检验结果可知,养老保险对储蓄率的影响是非线性的,且在不同老年人口抚养比的区间,养老保险参保率和替代率对储蓄率产生的影响存在差异。当老年人口抚养比高于0.2002时养老保险参保率与储蓄率的关系呈从显著正相关到负相关的转变;养老保险替代率与储蓄率虽然始终呈负相关关系,但是当老年人口抚养比超过0.101时,养老保险替代率对储蓄率的负向影响大幅减弱。这表明,随着老龄化进程的加速,养老保险对储蓄的“认知效应”转变为“替代效应”,这种此消彼长的正负转换显示二者呈非线性关系。此外,在各地经济发展及老龄化进程差异的共同推动下,养老保险替代率与储蓄率间的关系存在地区差异化,中部和西部地区的养老保险替代率与储蓄率呈显著负相关关系,东部地区二者负相关关系并不显著。The nonlinear relationship between pension insurance participation rate, replacement rate and saving rate, as well as the threshold effect of population aging are discussed through provincial panel data from 2000 to 2018 and Panel Smoothing Transition Regression Model(PSTR). According to the linear test results of PSTR, the impact of pension insurance on saving rate is nonlinear, and the effect of pension insurance participation rate and pension insurance replacement rate on saving rate are various in different old-age dependency ratio. When the old-age dependency ratio is higher than 0.2002, the relationship between the pension insurance participation rate and the saving rate will change from a significant positive correlation to a negative correlation. Although there is always a negative correlation between the pension imsurance replacement rate and saving rate, when the old-age dependency ratio exceeds 0.101, the negative impact of the pension insurance replacement rate on the saving rate will be greatly weakened. Therefore, it shows that with the acceleration of the aging process, the “cognitive effect” of pension insurance on savings changes to the “substitution effect”, and this positive and negative transformation shows a nonlinear relationship between the two. In addition, driven by the differences in economic development and aging process in different regions, the relationship between pension insurance replacement rate and saving rate has regional alienation. There is a significant negative correlation between the pension insurance replacement rate and the saving rate in the central and western regions, while there is no significant negative correlation between the two in the eastern regions.

关 键 词：养老保险参保率 养老保险替代率 储蓄率 平滑转换模型 人口老龄化 

分 类 号：F840.612[经济管理—保险]