近年来油气G4在世界市场格局中的变化分析  

Change Analysis of Oil and Gas G4 Countries in World Market Pattern in Recent Years

作　　者：张抗[1] 葛明娜 张立勤 Zhang Kang;Ge Mingna;Zhang Liqin(Sinopec Petroleum Exploration and Production Research Institute,Beijing 100083;Oil and Gas Resources Survey Center of China Geological Survey,Beijing 100083)

机构地区：[1]中国石化石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083 [2]中国地质调查局油气资源调查中心,北京100083

出　　处：《中外能源》2023年第1期6-13,共8页Sino-Global Energy

摘　　要：业内将美国、中国、俄罗斯、沙特4个影响最大的国家称为油气G4。美国页岩油气的快速发展,使其油气生产、消费再度居全球首位,并成为出口大国。但随着能源转型,特别是在页岩油气产区、产层上若不能实现战略性的接替,这一情况可能会有重大变化。中国是重要的油气生产国、消费国和进口大国,近年石油产量降至2×108t以下,但天然气产量却有较快增长。中国天然气产量增长亦得益于页岩气的快速发展,但也面临着必须在产区、产层上要有重大突破的门槛。中国油气进口依存度持续增长,成为我国能源安全中的短板。俄罗斯是世界首要的油气生产大国,以油气当量值合计为世界第一出口国。但油气生产上的战略性开拓无大的进展,经济发展较慢,致使油气产量、消费量和出口量均无重大发展。沙特是世界头号石油生产国和出口国以及日趋重要的油气消费国,拥有以其产量主动升降而影响世界石油市场的能力,加上有中东产区作后盾,地缘油气博弈中的任何一方都不得不重视沙特和中东的作用。世界油气市场供应大于需求的出现,使需求(进口)方拥有更大的发言权。以中国为中心的东亚-南亚成为油气消费和进口增长最快的地区,由OPEC发展形成的OPEC+集团也为世界石油格局注入了新的因素。The four most influential countries in the industry,i.e.,the United States,China,Russia and Saudi Arabia,are called oil and gas G4 countries.The rapid development of shale oil and gas in the United States has once again made it the world′s largest oil and gas producer and consumer and a major exporter.However,this situation may change significantly with the energy transition,especially if strategic replacement is not achieved in shale oil and gas production areas and reservoirs.China is an important producer,consumer and importer of oil and gas.In recent years,its oil production has dropped below 200 million tons,but its natural gas production has grown rapidly.The growth of natural gas production in China also benefits from the rapid development of shale gas,but it also faces the threshold of major breakthroughs in production areas and reservoirs.China′ s dependence on oil and gas imports continues to grow,becoming a short board of China′ s energy security.Russia is the world′ s leading oil and gas producer and the world′ s largest exporter in terms of total oil and gas equivalent value.However,there has been no great progress in its strategic exploration of oil and gas production,and its slow economic development has resulted in no significant development of oil and gas production,consumption and exports.Saudi Arabia is the world′s largest oil producer and exporter and an increasingly important oil and gas consumer.It has the ability to influence the world oil market by active-ly increasing or reducing its production.With the Middle East production area as the backing,any player in the oil and gas geopolitical game has to pay attention to the role of Saudi Arabia and the Middle East.The oversupplied world oil and gas market gives the demander(importer) a greater say.East Asia and South Asia centered on China have become the regions with the fastest growth in oil and gas consumption and imports.The OPEC+ group formed by the development of OPEC has also injected new factors into the world oil pattern.

关 键 词：油气G4 油气市场格局 页岩油气 油气产量 消费量 进出口量 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]