能见度实况融合分析产品在四川省低能见度中的适用性评估  

Visibility fusion analysis products in Sichuan province applicability assessment in low visibility

作　　者：蒋雨荷 黄晓龙 吴薇 雷薇[3] Jiang Yuhe;Huang Xiaolong;Wu Wei;Lei Wei(Sichuan Meteorological Observation and Data Centre,Chengdu 610072,China;Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610072,China;Shihezi Meteorological Bureau,Xinjiang Shihezi 832000,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省气象探测数据中心,成都610072 [2]高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,成都610072 [3]石河子气象局,新疆石河子832000

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2022年第4期59-65,共7页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

基　　金：四川省科技厅重点研发计划项目(2022YFS0541);四川省气象探测数据中心川气探数课题(2021-1);四川省气象青年课题(SCQXKJQN2020035);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021Z007)子项目。

摘　　要：利用四川省156个国家站2020年10月—2021年10月的逐小时能见度观测资料,通过邻近插值、双线性插值与三次立方样条插值的方法进行对比,对国家信息中心研发的能见度实况融合分析产品在四川的适用性进行评估,并选取一次典型的低能见度过程做检验。结果表明,该产品的评估效果在盆地最优,川西高原最差,随着海拔的升高由低估转为高估。均方根误差随能见度呈“U”型分布,1~2km的误差最小,大于30km的误差最大。在低能见度中,融合产品偏高于实况。当能见度为极差或差时,融合产品的误差较大。当能见度较差时,误差明显减小,数据可用性较好。三种插值方式对评估结果影响不大。个例检验表明,融合产品能大致反映全省能见度的时空分布特征,但200m以下未能捕捉到实况落区。Based on the hourly visibility observation data of 156 national stations in Sichuan Province from October 2020 to October 2021 and the comparative analysis of proximity interpolation,bilinear interpolation,and cubic spline interpolation,the applicability of the visibility reality fusion analysis product developed by the National Meteorological Information Centre in Sichuan is evaluated,and a typical low-visibility process is selected for inspection.The results show that the evaluation effect of this product is the best in the basin and the worst in the western Sichuan Plateau,and it changes from underestimation to overestimation as altitude increases.The root mean square error presents a U-shaped distribution with visibility,with the smallest error at 1 to 2 km and the largest error at greater than 30 km.In low visibility,the fusion product is higher than the actual value.When the visibility is extremely poor or poor,the fusion product has a large error and needs to be revised before use.When the visibility is relatively poor,the error is significantly reduced and the data availability is improved.The three interpolation methods have little influence on the evaluation results.The case test shows that the fusion product can roughly reflect the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the visibility in the whole of Sichuan,but it fails to capture the real landing area below 200m.

关 键 词：能见度实况融合产品 低能见度 检验评估 

分 类 号：P412.17[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]