中国省域碳源/碳汇强度及碳盈亏的空间演变  

Spatial Evolution of China’s Provincial Carbon Source/Sink Intensity and Carbon Surplus and Deficit

作　　者：陈帝伯 魏伟[1] 周俊菊[1] 杜海波 郝瑞军 李缘缘 CHEN Dibo;WEI Wei;ZHOU Junju;DU Haibo;HAO Ruijun;LI Yuanyuan(College of Geography and Environmental Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,Gansu,China)

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《经济地理》2023年第1期159-168,共10页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41861040、41761047);甘肃省自然科学基金项目(1506RJZA129)。

摘　　要：文章将碳源/碳汇与GDP数据相结合,探究了2005-2020年中国省域碳排放强度与碳汇强度的时空变化特征,以此为基础分析了15年间碳盈亏的时空变化,并使用地理探测器探测了主导不同时期影响碳盈亏的驱动因素。结果显示:①中国省域碳源正处于增长但增长速度放缓的阶段,同时碳排放强度也正在放缓,空间上呈现北高南低的分布特征,高碳强度区集中于北方省份。②碳汇量与碳汇强度均处于下降趋势,碳汇强度呈现东北、西北、西南地区高,中部、东部地区低的分布格局。③全国绝大多数省份处于碳亏且碳亏量逐年增多的态势,从时空演变看,西北地区与中部地区省份向碳亏演变趋势更为明显,而西南地区省份与京津地区向碳盈演变趋势较为明显。④从单因子探测来看,人口与经济发展水平是影响碳盈亏的主要因素,除此之外科技发展水平也影响了碳盈亏的时空变化,其影响力呈现先增后减趋势;从双因子探测看,经济发展水平与产业结构组合因子的主导地位逐渐被人口、科技水平、城市化和产业结构所替代,城市高新技术的“低碳”发展模式和科技型产业成为影响碳盈亏的持续推动力。Combining the data of carbon source/carbon sink and GDP,the paper explores the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of China’s provincial carbon emission intensity and carbon sink intensity from 2005 to 2020,analyzes the spatiotemporal variation of carbon profit and loss in 2005-2020,and uses geographic detectors to detect the driving factors that dominate carbon profit and loss in different periods.The results show that:1)China’s provincial carbon source is in the stage of growth,but its growth rate is slowing down.The carbon emission intensity is slowing down,showing the spatial distribution characteristics which is high in the north and low in the south,and the high carbon intensity areas distribute in the northern provinces.2)Carbon sink volume and carbon sink intensity are in a downward trend,the areas with high carbon sink intensity are in northeastern,northwestern and southwestern regions,the areas with low carbon sink intensity locate in central and eastern regions.3)The vast majority of provinces in China are in the situation of carbon deficit and the carbon deficit is increasing year by year.From the perspective of temporal and spatial evolution,the northwestern and central provinces have a more obvious trend towards carbon deficit,while Beijing,Tianjin and the southwestern provinces have a more obvious trend towards carbon surplus.4)From the perspective of single factor detection,the level of population and economic development is the main factor affecting carbon surplus and deficit.In addition,the level of scientific and technological development also affects the temporal and spatial changes of carbon surplus and deficit,and its influence shows a trend of increasing first and then decreasing.From the perspective of dual factor exploration,the dominant position of the combination factors of economic development level and industrial structure has gradually been replaced by population,scientific and technological level,urbanization and industrial structure.The"low carbon"development mode of urban

关 键 词：碳排放强度 碳汇强度 碳盈亏 能源结构 产业结构 地理探测器 林草地 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]