贸易政策不确定性、企业现金持有水平与债务违约风险——来自沪深A股上市公司的经验证据  

Trade Policy Uncertainty,Corporate Cash Holdings Level and Debt Default Risk——Empirical Evidence from Shanghai and Shenzhen A-Share Listed Companies

作　　者：李梓旗 于双丽 乔桂明[1] LI Zi-qi;YU Shuang-li;QIAO Gui-ming(Soochow College,Soochow University,Suzhou 215008;School of Business,Zhengzhou University of Aeronautics,Zhengzhou 450016;Collaborative Innovation Center for Aviation Economy Development of Henan Province,Zhengzhou 450046,China)

机构地区：[1]苏州大学东吴商学院,江苏苏州215008 [2]郑州航空工业管理学院商学院,河南郑州450016 [3]航空经济发展河南省协同创新中心,河南郑州450046

出　　处：《山西财经大学学报》2023年第1期115-126,共12页Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(19BJL020);河南省高校人文社科研究一般项目(2023-ZZJH-015)。

摘　　要：选取2007—2019年沪深2046家制造业企业为研究样本,使用面板固定效应模型和二值混合模型,考察了贸易政策不确定性对制造业企业债务违约风险的影响及其机制。研究结果表明,贸易政策不确定性会显著加剧制造业企业的债务违约风险。机制检验结果表明,贸易政策不确定性主要通过影响制造业企业的现金持有水平对其债务违约风险产生作用。异质性因素考察结果发现,外部融资能力能够显著缓解贸易政策不确定性对企业债务违约风险的影响,规模越小的企业其债务违约风险越容易受到贸易政策不确定性的影响。After selecting 2046 manufacturing enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2007 to 2019 as the research sample,the paper used fixed effect model and binary mixture model to investigate the action mechanism of trade policy uncertainty on the debt default risk of manufacturing enterprises.Research conclusions showed that,trade policy uncertainty could significantly heighten the debt default risk of manufacturing enterprises.Mechanism test showed that,trade policy uncertainty has played a role mainly through exerting an effect on the cash holdings level of manufacturing enterprises.The results of heterogeneity factors investigation revealed that,external financing ability could significantly alleviate this effect of trade policy uncertainty.Small-scale enterprises were susceptible to the influence of trade policy uncertainty.

关 键 词：贸易政策不确定性 债务违约风险 现金持有水平 外部融资能力 企业规模 

分 类 号：F752.0[经济管理—国际贸易] F275[经济管理—产业经济]