Can a multistage approach improve individual tree mortality predictions across the complex mixed-species and managed forests of eastern North America?  

作　　者：Cen Chen John Kershaw Jr Aaron Weiskittel Elizabeth McGarrigle 

机构地区：[1]Center for Research on Sustainable Forests,University of Maine,Orono,ME,04469,USA [2]Faculty of Forestry&Environmental Management,University of New Brunswick,Fredericton,NB,E3B 5A3,Canada [3]Nova Scotia Department of Natural Resources,Halifax,NS,B3J 3M8,Canada

出　　处：《Forest Ecosystems》2023年第1期21-30,共10页森林生态系统（英文版）

基　　金：provided by National Science Foundation Center for Advanced Forestry Systems(CAFS;Award#1915078);RII Track-2FEC(Award#1920908)。

摘　　要：Tree mortality plays a fundamental role in the dynamics of forest ecosystems,yet it is one of the most difficult phenomena to accurately predict.Various modeling strategies have been developed to improve individual tree mortality predictions.One less explored strategy is the use of a multistage modeling approach.Potential improvements from this approach have remained largely unknown.In this study,we developed a novel multistage approach and compared its performance in individual tree mortality predictions with a more conventional approach using an identical individual tree mortality model formulation.Extensive permanent plot data(n=9442)covering the Acadian Region of North America and over multiple decades(1965–2014)were used in this study.Our results indicated that the model behavior with the multistage approach better depicted the observed mortality and showed a notable improvement over the conventional approach.The difference between the observed and predicted numbers of dead trees using the multistage approach was much smaller when compared with the conventional approach.In addition,tree survival probabilities predicted by the multistage approach generally were not significantly different from the observations,whereas the conventional approach consistently underestimated mortality across species and overestimated tree survival probabilities over the large range of DBH in the data.The new multistage approach also predictions of zero mortality in individual plots,a result not possible in conventional models.Finally,the new approach was more tolerant of modeling errors because it based estimates on ranked tree mortality rather than error-prone predicted values.Overall,this new multistage approach deserves to be considered and tested in future studies.

关 键 词：Tree mortality modeling Mortality disaggregation Mixed effect model Annualization Mixed forests 

分 类 号：S71[农业科学—林学]