冀东地区海洋文化产业发展情景规划——基于熵权和改进TOPSIS模型框架  

Scenario Planning of Marine Cultural Industry Development in Eastern Hebei Province——Based on the Framework of Entropy Weight and Improved TOPSIS Model

作　　者：李越[1] LI Yue(National Institute of Cultural Development,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学国家文化发展研究院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《经济论坛》2023年第3期73-85,共13页Economic Forum

基　　金：河北省文化艺术科学规划和旅游研究项目“冀东地区海洋文化产业空间集聚的动力学机制研究”(HB20-YB113)。

摘　　要：文章以河北省唐山市与秦皇岛市海洋文化产业为研究对象,考察2016—2021年间两市海洋资源、产业供给侧、需求侧、产业链、地方行政与财政能力等数据,应用因子分析与改进TOPSIS模型构建唐秦两市海洋文化产业竞争力影响因素分析框架,分析两市海洋文化产业影响因子,提出了“稳定性因子”“风险性因子”“不稳定性因子”与“突变因子”等四类主成分因子,明确了唐山与秦皇岛两市海洋文化产业未来面临“风险”与“不确定性”叠加的发展环境,应用情景规划工具为冀东地区海洋文化产业下一步发展制定了“不确定性应对策略”。This paper takes the marine cultural industries of Tangshan and Qinhuangdao in Hebei Province as the research objects, reviews the data of marine resources, industrial supply side, demand side, industrial chain, local administration and finance of the two cities from 2016 to 2021, and constructs the analytical framework of influencing factors of the competitiveness of the marine cultural industries of the two cities by using factor analysis and improved TOPSIS model. This paper analyzes the influencing factors of the marine cultural industries in the two cities, puts forward “four principal component factors” including “stability factor”, “risk factor”, “instability factor” and “mutation factor”, makes clear the development environment with the superposition of “risk” and“uncertainty” that the marine cultural industries of Tangshan and Qinhuangdao will face in the future, and formulate the uncertainty coping strategies for the further development of the marine cultural industries in two cities by applying the scenario planning tool.

关 键 词：海洋文化产业 情景规划 TOPSIS模型 不确定性应对策略 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]