基于证据理论的传动方案决策系统设计  

Design of Transmission Scheme Decision System Based on Evidence Theory

作　　者：王红军 汪润鸿 李锦慧 刘伟良 WANG Hong-jun;WANG Run-hong;LI Jin-hui;LIU Wei-liang(College of Engineering/Key Lab of Key Technology on Agriculture Machine and Equipment,Ministry of Education,South China Agricultural University,Guangdong Guangzhou 510642,China)

机构地区：[1]华南农业大学工程学院南方农业机械与装备关键技术教育部重点实验室,广东广州510642

出　　处：《机械设计与制造》2023年第3期130-134,共5页Machinery Design & Manufacture

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFD0700103)。

摘　　要：针对大型拖拉机变速箱智能化设计过程中难以在多个近似变速箱传动方案中决策出最佳方案的问题,基于证据理论构建了一个大型拖拉机变速箱传动方案智能决策系统。依据变速箱传动方案中各属性的特点,采用了模糊数、区间数与语言评价集等理论构建了各属性的基础概率分配模块;采用层次分析法与博弈论思想构建了属性权重分配模块;对基础概率加权平均之后,采用证据理论组合规则构建了融合决策模块。通过综合决策者的偏好与待决策方案之间的相互关系实现传动方案的快速决策。测试结果表明:该系统能够准确地依据决策偏好实现传动方案的快速决策,具有一定的应用价值。Aiming at the problem that it is difficult to decide the optimal solution among multiple approximate transmission transmission schemes in the intelligent design process of large tractor gearboxes,it builds an intelligent decision system for large tractor gearbox transmission schemes based on evidence theory. According to the characteristics of each attribute in the transmission scheme of transmission,the basic probability distribution module of each attribute was constructed by using theories such as fuzzy number,interval number and language evaluation set;the attribute weight distribution module was constructed by using analytic hierarchy process and game theory;After the basic probability weighted average,the fusion decision-making module is constructed using the combination theory of evidence theory. The comprehensive decision-maker’s preferences and the interrelationship between the schemes to be decided are used to realize the rapid decision-making of the transmission scheme. The test results show that the system can accurately realize the fast decision of the transmission scheme according to the decision preferences,and has certain application value.

关 键 词：方案融合决策 层次分析法 综合权重 模糊理论 证据理论 博弈论 

分 类 号：TH16[机械工程—机械制造及自动化] P315.69[天文地球—地震学]