基于多元逐步回归及实时修正的长江南京站高潮位预报  

High tidal level forecasting of Nanjing Tidal Level Station on Yangtze River based on Multiple Stepwise Regression and real-time correction

作　　者：周莉 严锋[1] 何健[2] 鲍庆煜 朱庆云[1] 于飞龙[1] ZHOU Li;YAN Feng;HE Jian;BAO Qingyu;ZHU Qingyun;YU Feilong(Nanjing Branch of Jiangsu Province Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau,Nanjing 210008,China;Jiangsu Province Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau,Nanjing 210029,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省水文水资源勘测局南京分局,江苏南京210008 [2]江苏省水文水资源勘测局,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水利水电快报》2023年第3期22-25,共4页Express Water Resources & Hydropower Information

摘　　要：南京潮水位站是长江进入江苏的“第一站”,提高潮位预报精度对于南京市防洪减灾具有重要意义。利用南京潮水位站2010~2020年高潮位超过8.50 m年份的实测资料,采用多元回归分析建立南京潮水位站高潮位预报模型。为消除多重共线性的影响,采用逐步回归对变量进行筛选,并对预报模型进行实时修正以提高预报精度。结果表明:根据GB/T 22482-2008《水文情报预报规范》,该模型预报精度可达甲等。该预报方法简单、实用,对于提高受潮汐影响站点的潮位预报精度具有一定的参考价值。Nanjing Tidal Level Station is the first hydrological station located along Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province.Improving the accuracy of tide level forecasting is important for flood control and disaster reduction of Nanjing.The high tidal level forecasting model introduced in this paper was established with the method of Multiple Regression,using the measured data of high tidal level over 8.50m from 2010 to 2020.In order to eliminate the effects of multicollinearity,the variables were screened with the method of stepwise regression,at the same time,real time modification was conducted in the forecasting process to improve the forecast accuracy.The results showed that the model forecast accuracy reached the level of Class A stipulated by the GB/T 22482-2008 Standard for Hydrological Information and Hydrological Forecasting Standard.The forecasting method is simple and effective,which can be useful for improving the forecast accuracy of tidal level of the hydrological station affected by tide.

关 键 词：高潮位预报 多元逐步回归 实时修正 南京潮水位站 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]