不同全球变暖目标下中国气候变化风险区域格局  

Identification of regional pattern of climate change risk in China under different global warming targets

作　　者：吴绍洪 巢清尘 高江波 刘路路 冯爱青 邓浩宇 左丽媛 刘婉露 WU Shaohong;CHAO Qingchen;GAO Jiangbo;LIU Lulu;FENG Aiqing;DENG Haoyu;ZUO Liyuan;LIU Wanlu(Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China [2]College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China [3]National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China

出　　处：《Journal of Geographical Sciences》2023年第3期429-448,共20页地理学报（英文版）

基　　金：The National Key R&D Program of China,No.2018YFC1509002;The Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,No.XDA19040304。

摘　　要：Climate change will bring huge risks to human society and the economy.Regional climate change risk assessment is an important basic analysis for addressing climate change,which can be expressed as a regional system of comprehensive climate change risk.This study establishes regional systems of climate change risks under the proposed global warming targets.Results of this work are spatial patterns of climate change risks in China,indicated by the degree of climate change and the status of the risk receptors.Therefore,the risks show significant spatial differences.The high-risk regions are mainly distributed in East,South,and central China,while the medium-high risk regions are found in North and southwestern China.Under the 2℃warming target,more than 1/4 of China’s area would be at high and medium-high risk,which is more severe than under the 1.5℃warming target,and would extend to the western and northern regions.This work provides regional risk characteristics of climate change under different global warming targets as a foundation for dealing with climate change.

关 键 词：regional system of comprehensive climate change risk global warming targets top-down and bottom-up methods spatial pattern risk receptor 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]