黄南南部短时强降雨时空分布特征及其对有机畜牧业影响分析  

Analysis of the Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Short-Term Heavy Rainfall in Southern Huangnan and Its Impact on Organic Livestock Farming

作　　者：陈海莲 陈生光 Chen Hailian;Chen Shengguang(Henan County Meteorological Bureau,Qinghai Province,Youganing Town 811599,China;Zeku County Meteorological Bureau,Qinghai Province,Zegu Town 811499,China)

机构地区：[1]青海省河南县气象局,优干宁镇811599 [2]青海省泽库县气象局,泽曲镇811499

出　　处：《青海科技》2023年第1期101-106,共6页Qinghai Science and Technology

摘　　要：根据2011年~2021年5月~9月青海黄南南部区域内25个自动气象观测站(包括区域站)逐时降雨量资料,利用Arcgis、Excel、SPSS等数据处理软件,分析该地区短时强降雨时空分布特征及其对有机畜牧业的影响。结果表明:(1)近11年来,黄南南部短时强降雨分布不均,1 h降雨量≥20 mm出现59站次,3 h降雨量≥40 mm出现15站次,随年份均呈波动状略增多趋势;7月、8月是短时强降雨出现频次最多时段,也是造成山洪、滑坡、泥石流及塌陷等次生灾害的关键时期;日变化特征明显,下午、前半夜是短时强降雨多发时段,后半夜及上午出现几率很小,在日常预报预测工作中难度大。(2)极端最大1 h降雨量≥50 mm和3 h降雨量≥60 mm主要出现在河南县城、多松乡、托叶玛乡和泽库县宁秀乡,表明该地区短时强降雨持续时间短、强度大,而且频发、重发概率大,符合中小尺度天气特征。(3)短时强降雨常伴有雷暴大风、冰雹等恶劣天气,易造成风灾、雷电、雹灾以及山洪、滑坡、泥石流等次生灾害,对当地有机畜牧业生产、人民生命财产安全构成严重威胁,甚至遭成严重的经济损失。(4)针对短时强降雨天气,气象部门应加强对短时强降雨天气监测、研判,提高预报预警发布的提前量,与应急、农牧等部门联合为当地牧业合作社、养殖大户等提供防暴雨、雷电、冰雹、洪灾的预警预报和防御措施,减少对有机畜牧业生产造成的经济损失。Based on the time-to-time rainfall data from 25 automatic meteorological observation stations(including regional stations) in the southern region of Huangnan from May to September 2011 to 2021, and using Arcgis, Excel, SPSS and other data processing software, this paper analyzes the characteristics of spatial and temporal distribution of short-time heavy rainfall in the region and its impact on organic animal husbandry. The results show that:(1) In the past 11 years, the distribution of short-time heavy rainfall in southern Huangnan is uneven, with 59stations with 1h rainfall ≥ 20mm and 15 stations with 3h rainfall ≥ 40mm, which show a slightly increasing trend of fluctuation with the year. July and August are the most frequent periods of short-time heavy rainfall, which are also critical periods for secondary disasters such as flash floods, landslides, mudslides and landslides. The characteristics of daily changes are obvious. The afternoon and the first half of the night is the time of short-time heavy rainfall, and the second half of the night and the morning has a very small chance of occurrence, which is difficult in the daily forecast and prediction work.(2) The extreme maximum 1h rainfall ≥ 50mm and 3 h rainfall ≥ 60mm mainly appear in Henan County, Dosong Township, Toyama Township and Zeku County Ningxiu Township, indicating short duration and high intensity of the short-time heavy rainfall in the area, and its high probability of frequency and recurrence.(3)Short-time heavy rainfall is often accompanied by severe weather such as thunderstorms, high winds and hailstorms,which can easily cause wind, lightning, hailstorms and secondary disasters such as flash floods, landslides and mudslides, posing serious threats to local organic livestock production, people’s lives and property safety, and even serious economic losses.(4) In response to the short-time heavy rainfall weather, the meteorological department should strengthen the monitoring, research and judgment of short-time heavy rainfall weathe

关 键 词：短时强降雨 时空分布 有机畜牧业 黄南南部 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]