鄂州市地质灾害气象风险预警模型建立与应用  

Establishment and Application of Meteorological Risk Early Warning Model forGeological Disasters in Ezhou City

作　　者：张云卫 赵志涵 张波 管琪 Zhang Yunwei;Zhao Zhihan;Zhang Bo;Guan Qi(Fifth Geological Brigade of Hubei Geological Bureau,Ezhou,Hubei 436000)

机构地区：[1]湖北省地质局第五地质大队,湖北鄂州436000

出　　处：《资源环境与工程》2023年第1期113-121,共9页Resources Environment & Engineering

基　　金：鄂州市地质灾害气象风险精细化预警应用与研究(KJ2022-20)。

摘　　要：降雨是地质灾害的诱发因素之一。基于近几年鄂州市翔实的地质调查资料,对地质灾害气象风险预警进行研究,根据研究区的地质环境情况选取9个因子作为评价因子,计算其潜势度与有效雨量后运算得出地质灾害危险度值,划分预警阈值,建立地质灾害气象风险预警模型。利用历史降雨情况及地质灾害发生时间进行预警模型检验,结果表明预警结果与历史事件吻合,证明鄂州市地质灾害气象风险预警模型准确性较高,具备较好的预警能力,可为当地地质灾害防治和政府防灾管理提供技术支撑和参考。Rainfall is one of the inducing factors of geological disasters.Based on the detailed geological survey data of Ezhou City in recent years,the meteorological risk early warning of geological disasters is studied.According to the geological environment of the study area,nine factors were selected as the influencing factors.After calculating the potential degree and effective rainfall,the geological disaster risk value was obtained,the early warning threshold was divided,and the geological disaster meteorological risk early warning model was established.The historical rainfall and the occurrence time of geological disasters were used to test the early warning model.The results showed that the early warning results were consistent with the historical time,which proved that the meteorological risk early warning model of geological disasters in Ezhou City had high accuracy and good early warning ability.It can provide technical support and reference for local geological disaster prevention and government disaster prevention management.

关 键 词：地质灾害 气象风险预警模型 潜势度 有效雨量 鄂州市 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]