1981—2010年长江中下游地区单季稻生殖生长期对气候变化和技术进步的响应  

Response of reproductive growth period length to climate warming and technological progress in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River during 1981–2010 in single-cropping rice

作　　者：刘二华 周广胜[1,2,3,4] 武炳义 宋艳玲 何奇瑾 吕晓敏[1,3] 周梦子 LIU Er-Hua;ZHOU Guang-Sheng;WU Bing-Yi;SONG Yan-Ling;HE Qi-Jin;LYU Xiao-Min;ZHOU Meng-Zi(State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Institute of Atmospheric Sciences,Fudan University,Shanghai 200439,China;Joint Eco-Meteorological Laboratory of Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences and Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,Henan,China;College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]复旦大学大气科学研究院,上海200439 [3]中国气象科学研究院与郑州大学生态气象联合实验室,河南郑州450001 [4]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193

出　　处：《作物学报》2023年第5期1305-1315,共11页Acta Agronomica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点研究计划项目(2018YFA0606103);国家自然科学基金重点项目(42130514,4213000565);中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费专项(2020Z004)资助。

摘　　要：作物生殖生长期长度与作物产量和品质密切相关。为深入探究作物生殖生长期长度(reproductive growth period lengths,RGLs)对气候变化和技术进步的响应,基于1981—2010年长江中下游地区单季稻生殖生长期和气象数据,量化不同RGLs (孕穗期—抽穗期(booting to heading,BDHD)、抽穗期—乳熟期(heading to milking,HDMS)、乳熟期—成熟期(milking to maturity,MSMD)和孕穗期—成熟期(booting to maturity,BDMD))对平均温度(mean temperature,TEM)、累积降水量(cumulative precipitation,PRE)和累积日照时数(cumulative sunshine duration,SSD)的敏感性,并分离气候变化和技术进步对不同RGLs的影响。结果表明,1981—2010年长江中下游地区单季稻BDMD呈延长趋势(0.24d a^(–1)),其中,HDMS延长趋势最明显(0.16 d a^(–1))。气候因子中高温和寡照不利于单季稻不同RGLs延长,其中,TEM对BDHD、HDMS和MSMD变化趋势的平均相对贡献分别为–50.0%、–50.7%和–21.9%,SSD对BDHD、HDMS和MSMD变化趋势的平均相对贡献分别为–47.2%、–48.7%和–67.6%。技术进步弥补了气候变化对不同RGLs变化趋势的不利影响。研究表明,技术进步可能是当前单季稻稳产高产和趋利避害的主要手段,未来可以采用较长生殖生长期和耐热性品种来适应持续的气候变化。Crop growth period length is closely linked to climate change and technological progress. Even though the extensive researches conducting on crop growth period length variation and its response to climate change, particularly temperature change,the response of reproductive growth periods lengths(RGLs) to climate change and technological progress remains unclear. Based on the reproductive growth periods and meteorological data of single-cropping rice in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River(MLYR) during 1981-2010, the trends of the RGLs(including booting to heading(BDHD), heading to milking(HDMS),milking to maturity(MSMD), and booting to maturity(BDMD) ) and climatic variations were analyzed. In addition, to explore the confounding effects of climate change and technological progress on the RGLs, the sensitivities of the RGLs to mean temperature(TEM), cumulative precipitation(PRE), and cumulative sunshine duration(SSD) were measured. The results showed that the BDMD had an extension trend(0.24 d a^(–1)), among which the extension trend in the HDMS(0.16 d a^(–1)) was the most obvious in RGLs, while the extension trends of BDHD(0.03 d a^(–1)) and MSMD(0.05 d a^(–1)) were not significant. High temperature and low sunshine duration were unfavorable to the extension of the RGLs. The mean relative contributions of TEM to the BDHD, HDMS,and MSMD were –50.0%, –50.7%, and –21.9%, which were –47.2%, –48.7%, and –67.6% in terms of SSD, respectively. Technological progress compensated for the adverse impacts of climate change on the trends of different RGLs. These results suggested that cultivar selection and agronomic management were the effective adaptation strategies benefiting for the stable and high yield of single-cropping rice. Single-cropping rice cultivar with longer RGLs and heat-tolerant may be suitable to cope with the continuous climate change in the future.

关 键 词：单季稻 气候变化 生殖生长期 技术进步 

分 类 号：S511.41[农业科学—作物学]