国际粮食市场风起云涌国内粮食价格“稳”字当头——我国粮食价格走势分析及政策建议  

International grain market fluctuates frequently and China’s grain prices remain stable——Analysis of food price trends and policy recommendations

作　　者：刘刚[1] 罗屹 

机构地区：[1]国家发展和改革委员会价格成本调查中心

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2022年第9期10-14,共5页Price:Theory & Practice

摘　　要：粮食安全是“国之大者”。维持粮价稳定运行是保障国家粮食安全的重要内容,是稳物价、稳民生的基础。本文系统梳理新冠肺炎暴发后,我国主要粮食品种的价格走势,并从国际和国内两方面分析导致我国粮食价格变动的原因。研究发现:相比新冠疫情暴发之初,除稻谷价格相对稳定以外,我国小麦、玉米、大豆市场价格有所上升,涨幅略有明显。新冠肺炎疫情、国际流动性泛滥、资本炒作等国际因素和国内种粮成本上升叠加影响是导致粮食价格上升的主要原因。预计未来受国际粮食市场价格波动影响,我国粮食价格仍将维持相对高位的平稳运行。基于此,建议压实粮食生产责任、强化市场预期引导、加强粮价监管、降低农户种粮成本。Keeping domestic food prices stable is an important part of protecting national food security, and it is the basis for keeping prices and people’s livelihood stable. This paper systematically compares the prices of major grain after the outbreak of Covid-19 in China, and analyzes the reasons leading to changes in China’s grain prices from both international and domestic perspectives. The study found that, except for rice, compared to the period before the outbreak of Covid-19, the market prices of wheat, corn and soybeans in China have increased. The Covid-19, the overflow of international liquidity, the capital speculation and other international factors, as well as the superimposed impact of rising domestic grain costs, are the main reasons for the increases of food prices. It is expected that China’s grain prices will remain at a high level because of price fluctuations in the international grain market. Therefore, we suggest that the government should pay more attention to grain production, strengthen market expectation guidance, enhance grain price regulation, and reduce the costs of grain production.

关 键 词：粮食安全 种粮成本 粮价 输入型通胀 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]