数字经济发展对中国制造业的影响研究——基于可计算一般均衡模型的价值链分析  

Research on the Impact of Digital Economy Development on China’s Manufacturing Industry——Based on CGE model with GVC analysis framework

作　　者：董婉璐 李慧娟 杨军[4] Dong Wanlu;Li Huijuan;Yang Jun

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所 [2]中国经济社会发展与智能治理实验室 [3]北京林业大学经济管理学院 [4]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2022年第9期78-82,205,共6页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“中美先进制造业价值链风险和对策研究——基于全球可计算一般均衡模型的分析”(72103203);国家自然科学基金重大项目“全球价值链与中国产业升级研究”(71733002);国家自然科学基金项目“重大冲击和变化对中国-全球农业影响模拟模型的研究和开发”(71761147004);中国社会科学院青年科研启动项目“RCEP对区域经济和产业的影响分析”的资助。

摘　　要：推动数字经济发展,以数字经济赋能制造业高质量增长,通过数字产业化和产业数字化的共同作用重塑我国制造业发展格局,是我国从制造业大国跃升为制造业强国的必经之路。本文采用包含价值链核算体系的全球多区域多产业可计算一般均衡模型——GTAP-GVC模型和GTAP-MRIO数据库,以“数字产业化”和“产业数字化”相结合的作用机制作为分析框架,分析数字经济发展对宏观经济、产业结构和国际贸易的综合影响,全面刻画数字经济的发展对我国制造业全球价值链升级的影响机理。研究显示:数字经济的发展显著促进我国经济增长、贸易扩大和福利水平的提高,且产业数字化的影响幅度显著大于数字产业化;产业数字化对各产业产出的拉动效果显著高于数字产业化。在制造业部门中,资本和技术密集的行业产出增长幅度远超劳动密集型行业;数字经济的发展将普遍提高中国各个产业的国际价值链活动参与程度,尤其是制造业部门的参与程度提高相对更加明显。To promote the development of digital economy and enable the high quality growth of manufacturing industry by digital economy, rebuilding the development pattern of Chinese manufacturing industry through the combined effects of digital industrialization and industry digitalization is the only way for China to change into an important manufacturing power. In this paper, based on GTAP-GVC model and GTAP-MRIO database, we use the global multi-region and multi-industry CGE model including the value chain accounting system to analyze the comprehensive impact of the development of digital economy on macro-economy, industrial structure and international trade with the combined mechanism of "digital industrialization" and "industrial digitalization" as the analysis framework, which fully describes the influence mechanism of the development of digital economy on the upgrading of global value chain of Chinese manufacturing industry. The research shows that the development of digital economy has promoted the economic growth, trade expansion and welfare level of China significantly, and the range of influence of industry digitalization is significantly greater than that of digital industrialization;The driving effect of industrial digitization on industrial output is significantly higher than that of digital industrialization. In the manufacturing sector, output growth in capital/technology-intensive industries is more impressive than that in labor-intensive industries;The development of digital economy will generally improve the participation of China’s various industries in international value chain activities, especially for the manufacturing sector.

关 键 词：数字经济 制造业升级 价值链分析 CGE模型 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济] F49