Simulating multiple urban land use changes by integrating transportation accessibility and a vector-based cellular automata:a case study on city of Toronto  

作　　者：Xiaocong Xu Dachuan Zhang Xiaoping Liu Jinpei Ou Xinxin Wu 

机构地区：[1]School of Geography and Planning,Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation,Sun Yat-Sen University,Guangzhou,China [2]Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai),Zhuhai,China

出　　处：《Geo-Spatial Information Science》2022年第3期439-456,共18页地球空间信息科学学报（英文）

基　　金：the National Key R&D Program of China[Grant Number 2019YFA0607203];the National Natural Science Foundation of China[Grant Number 42001326 and 42171410];the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province of China[Grant Number 2021A1515011192].

摘　　要：The accessibility provided by the transportation system plays an essential role in driving urban growth and urban functional land use changes.Conventional studies on land use simulation usually simplified the accessibility as proximities and adopted the grid-based simulation strategy,leading to the insufficiencies of characterizing spatial geometry of land parcels and simulating subtle land use changes among urban functional types.To overcome these limita-tions,an Accessibility-interacted Vector-based Cellular Automata(A-VCA)model was proposed for the better simulation of realistic land use change among different urban functional types.The accessibility at both local and zonal scales derived from actual travel time data was considered as a key driver of fine-scale urban land use changes and was integrated into the vector-based CA simulation process.The proposed A-VCA model was tested through the simulation of urban land use changes in the City of Toronto,Canada,during 2012-2016.A vector-based CA without considering the driving factor of accessibility(VCA)and a popular grid-based CA model(Future Land Use Simulation,FLUS)were also implemented for compar-isons.The simulation results reveal that the proposed A-VCA model is capable of simulating fine-scale urban land use changes with satisfactory accuracy and good morphological feature(kappa=0.907,figure of merit=0.283,and cumulative producer’s accuracy=72.83%±1.535%).The comparison also shows significant outperformance of the A-VCA model against the VCA and FLUS models,suggesting the effectiveness of the accessibility-interactive mechanism and vector-based simulation strategy.The proposed model provides new tools for a better simula-tion of fine-scale land use changes and can be used in assisting the formulation of urban and transportation planning.

关 键 词：Urban land use change simulation transportation accessibility Vector-based cellular automata(VCA) 

分 类 号：F293.2[经济管理—国民经济]