中国出口行业动态全要素碳生产率及门槛效应研究  

Research on Dynamic Total Factor Carbon Productivity and Threshold Effect of China’s Export Industry

作　　者：胡剑波[1] 王楷文 HU Jianbo;WANG Kaiwen(School of Economics,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang 550025,China;School of Big Data Application and Economics,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang 550025,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学经济学院,贵州贵阳550025 [2]贵州财经大学大数据应用与经济学院,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2022年第12期228-236,共9页Environmental Science & Technology

基　　金：贵州省哲学社会科学规划重点课题(21GZZD58)。

摘　　要：准确测度和深入剖析中国出口行业真实的全要素碳生产率,对于推动贸易低碳发展具有重要意义。文章对出口行业的动态全要素碳生产率展开研究,结果表明:(1)外部环境和随机干扰对出口行业全要素碳生产率存在较为显著的影响,其中纯技术效率的提高和技术进步是推动全要素碳生产率增长的主要原因。(2)多数行业的全要素碳生产率在1~1.5这个区间内波动,各行业表现出较强的异质性,环保行业和高技术行业的全要素碳生产率相对较高、波动较小;高污染行业和中低技术行业的全要素碳生产率相对较低、波动较大。(3)禀赋结构、能源生产效率以及贸易依存度对全要素碳生产率存在门槛效应,禀赋结构和能源生产效率呈现“指数型”曲线特征,贸易依存度呈现倒“U”型曲线特征。基于此,各出口行业应优化禀赋结构,提高规模效率;发展低碳技术,提高能源生产效率;调整贸易结构,构建低碳贸易体系。Accurate measurement and in-depth analysis of the real total factor carbon productivity of China’s export industry is of great significance for promoting the low-carbon development of trade.This paper studies the dynamic total factor carbon productivity of the export industry,the results show that the external environment and random interference have a significant impact on the total factor carbon productivity of the export industry,in which the improvement of pure technical efficiency and technological progress are the main reasons to promote the growth of total factor carbon productivity.The total factor carbon productivity of most industries fluctuates in the range of 1~1.5,and each industry shows strong heterogeneity.The total factor carbon productivity of environmental protection industry and high-tech industry is relatively high and fluctuates less.The total factor carbon productivity of high pollution industries and low and medium technology industries is relatively low and volatile.Endowment structure,energy production efficiency and trade dependence have a threshold effect on total factor carbon productivity.Endowment structure and energy production efficiency are characterized by an"exponential"curve,while trade dependence is characterized by an inverted"U"curve.Based on this,each export industry should optimize the endowment structure and improve the scale efficiency,develop low-carbon technology and improve energy production efficiency,adjust the trade structure and build a low-carbon trade system.

关 键 词：全要素碳生产率 出口行业 低碳贸易 三阶段GML模型 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]