国家战略的理性与不确定性逻辑——兼谈冷战结束后的美国大战略  

The Rationality and Uncertainty of National Strategy:A Case Study of the American Grand Strategy after the Cold War

作　　者：韩召颖[1] 李伟[1] Han Zhaoying;Li Wei

机构地区：[1]南开大学周恩来政府管理学院,天津300350

出　　处：《国际论坛》2023年第2期22-40,155,156,共21页International Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“美国对外战略调整研究”(项目批准号:20AGJ010)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：近年来,美国国内围绕大战略是否过时、美国大战略的未来走向等问题争论激烈。对美国大战略的不同认识与大战略概念的本质和内在逻辑密切相关。大战略这一概念体现的是国家的目的性、规划性和利弊权衡的理性,是外交决策者审慎选择、理性行为的过程。而大战略所面对的种种挑战、受到的各种批评和质疑,根植于国家战略评估、决策、落实等整个过程所无法避免的不确定性。作为国家战略的关键部分,大战略深受理性和不确定性的影响,遵循着理性与不确定性交织下的复杂逻辑。理性和不确定性对大战略的影响主要体现为大战略的行为主体能否取得共识并进行理性决策,国家能否客观、准确地认识和评估大战略的内外环境,以及大战略在不同阶段能否保持连贯一致并得到有效落实。从战略决策、战略环境、战略实施这三个主要方面来看,受理性和不确定性的共同影响,冷战结束后的美国大战略表现出清晰与模糊、稳定与摇摆共存的复杂特征。理性、明智的大战略对于维护国家利益至关重要,而决策者对大战略及其后果的不确定性也应有充分的认识和评估。In recent years,there have been heated debates in the United States about whether grand strategy is outdated and about the future direction of American grand strategy.Different notions of American grand strategy are closely related to the essence and intrinsic logic of the concept of grand strategy.Grand strategy,which reflects a state’s purpose,planning,and rational calculation of gains and losses,is a process in which foreign policy decision-makers make prudent choices and engage in rational behavior.However,all the challenges,criticisms and doubts about grand strategy are rooted in the inevitable uncertainty in the whole process of strategic evaluation,decisionmaking and implementation.As a key part of national strategy,grand strategy is deeply influenced by rationality and uncertainty,which together create a complex logic that guides grand strategy.This influence is mainly reflected in whether actors responsible for the grand strategy can reach consensus and make rational decisions,whether the state can objectively and accurately understand and evaluate the internal and external environment of the grand strategy,and whether the grand strategy can be consistently and effectively implemented in different stages.From these three main aspects,the postCold War American grand strategy shows the complex characteristics of the coexistence of opposites,such as clarity and ambiguity,stability and vacillation.American grand strategy is also heavily influenced by Americanism.Since a rational and well-informed grand strategy is essential to safeguarding national interests,it is important that decisionmakers be fully cognizant of the uncertainty of grand strategy and its consequences and make careful assessments.

关 键 词：国家战略 美国大战略 理性 不确定性 美国外交 

分 类 号：D51[政治法律—政治学]