双碳背景下中国天然气供需形势预测  

Forecast of natural gas supply and demand in China under the background of“Dual Carbon Targets”

作　　者：贾爱林[1] 程刚 陈玮岩 李易隆[1] JIA Ailin;CHENG Gang;CHEN Weiyan;LI Yilong(PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration&Development,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083

出　　处：《石油勘探与开发》2023年第2期431-440,共10页Petroleum Exploration and Development

基　　金：中国石油天然气股份有限公司科学研究与技术开发项目“复杂天然气田开发关键技术研究”(2021DJ17);中国石油天然气股份有限公司科学研究与技术开发项目“致密气勘探开发技术研究”(2021DJ21)。

摘　　要：引入能源综合利用效率及终端有效能源消费量等新参数对LEAP(Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System)模型进行了改进,并提出BP(Back Propagation)神经网络-LEAP组合模型对未来中国一次能源消费总量、能源消费结构、能源消费碳排放量、天然气消费量等关键数据进行了预测,同时应用产量构成法对中国天然气产量进行了预测,并基于天然气供需预测结果,对“双碳”背景下中国天然气行业发展提出了建议。研究表明,“双碳”背景下中国一次能源消费总量将于2035年前后达峰,峰值约为59.4×10^(8)t标准煤;能源消费碳排放量将于2025年达峰,峰值约为103.4×10^(8)t;天然气消费量将于2040年前后达峰,峰值约为6100×10^(8)m^(3),天然气消费增幅最大的部门为电力生产部门与工业部门。中国天然气产量峰值为(2800~3400)×10^(8)m^(3),其中常规气(含致密气)产量峰值为(2100~2300)×10^(8)m^(3),页岩气产量峰值为(600~1050)×10^(8)m^(3),煤层气产量峰值为(150~220)×10^(8)m^(3)。“双碳”背景下中国天然气消费量与产量均将进一步增长,天然气行业发展前景广阔。As a kind of clean energy which creates little carbon dioxide,natural gas will play a key role in the process of achieving“Peak Carbon Dioxide Emission”and“Carbon Neutrality”.The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP)model was improved by using new parameters including comprehensive energy efficiency and terminal effective energy consumption.The Back Propagation(BP)Neural Network–LEAP model was proposed to predict key data such as total primary energy consumption,energy mix,carbon emissions from energy consumption,and natural gas consumption in China.Moreover,natural gas production in China was forecasted by the production composition method.Finally,based on the forecast results of natural gas supply and demand,suggestions were put forward on the development of China’s natural gas industry under the background of“Dual Carbon Targets”.The research results indicate that under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality,China’s primary energy consumption will peak(59.4×10^(8)tce)around2035,carbon emissions from energy consumption will peak(103.4×10^(8)t)by 2025,and natural gas consumption will peak(6100×10^(8)m^(3))around 2040,of which the largest increase will be contributed by the power sector and industrial sector.China’s peak natural gas production is about(2800–3400)×10^(8)m^(3),including(2100–2300)×10^(8)m^(3)conventional gas(including tight gas),(600–1050)×10^(8)m3shale gas,and(150–220)×10^(8)m^(3)coalbed methane.Under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality,the natural gas consumption and production of China will further increase,showing a great potential of the natural gas industry.

关 键 词：双碳目标 能源结构 碳排放量 天然气消费量 天然气产量 新型能源体系 终端消费规模 产供储销 

分 类 号：TE122.14[石油与天然气工程—油气勘探]