基于Catch-MSY模型的西北太平洋日本鲭资源评估及敏感性分析  

Stock assessment and sensitivity analysis of Scomber japonicus in the Northwest Pacific Ocean using Catch-MSY method

作　　者：石永闯 陈云云 樊伟[1,2] 伍玉梅[1,2] 赵国庆 杨超 SHI Yongchuang;CHEN Yunyun;FAN Wei;WU Yumei;ZHAO Guoqing;YANG Chao(Key Laboratory of Fisheries Remote Sensing,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,East China Sea Fisheries Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences,Shanghai 200090,China;Key and Open Laboratory of Remote Sensing Information Technology in Fishing Resource,East China Sea Fisheries Research Instiute,Chinese Acaderry of F ishery Science,Shanghai 200090,China;China Aquatic Products Zhoushan Marine Fisheries Corporation,Zhoushan Zhejiang 316101,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水产科学研究院东海水产研究所,农业农村部渔业遥感重点实验室,上海200090 [2]中国水产科学研究院东海水产研究所渔业资源遥感信息技术重点开放实验室,上海200090 [3]中国水产舟山海洋渔业有限公司,浙江舟山316101

出　　处：《海洋渔业》2023年第1期26-38,共13页Marine Fisheries

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“远洋渔情预报新技术及精细化服务系统”(2019YFD0901405);上海市青年科技英才扬帆计划(22YF1459900);中国水产科学研究院东海水产研究所中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金(2021T04);中国水产科学研究院东海水产研究所中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金(2021M06)。

摘　　要：为了解日本鲭(Scomber japonicus)的资源状况,利用北太平洋渔业委员会(NPFC)统计的1995—2019年渔获量数据和生活史信息,基于Catch-MSY模型估算了西北太平洋日本鲭最大可持续产量(maximum sustainable yield,MSY),评价了渔业管理策略,同时对该模型开展了敏感性分析研究。根据不同模型参数先验分布、不同时间序列渔获量数据及过程误差设立了16个情景进行敏感性分析,考虑各因素对模型评估结果的影响。结果表明:1)基准方案情景S1A中,日本鲭MSY估计值为49.62×10^(4)t(38.72×10^(4)t~60.52×10^(4)t);情景S1B中,日本鲭MSY估计值为49.47×10^(4)t(38.51×10^(4)t~60.43×10^(4)t);2)与参数内禀增长率r相比,环境容纳量K具有相对较窄的后验分布,lnK随着lnr的增加呈逐渐减小的趋势,MSY的值与r先验分布的下限呈正相关关系;3)MSY值的估算结果对渔获量数据的时间序列长度较为敏感,但时间序列对资源利用状况的估算结果影响有限。研究结果可为科学管理日本鲭资源和了解Catch-MSY模型敏感性提供理论支撑。Chub mackerel Scomber japonicus is an important economic and small pelagic species in the Northwest Pacific Ocean.Japanese fisheries initially exploited Scomber japonicus species in this area,and in recent years,the major countries harvesting this species include Japan,China,Russia and Korea.The annual catch of Scomber japonicus recorded in 2019 was about 64364 tons in China,which accounted for 14.00%of the global production.With the global development of Scomber japonicus fisheries,the number of fishing vessels has been increasing,coupled with the impact of marine environment and climate change,Scomber japonicus resources fluctuate,and fishing production has undergone annual changes.Meanwhile,Scomber japonicus fishery is a typical data-limited fishery in the Northwest Pacific Ocean.It has the biological characteristics of a short life cycle and a long migration route,and the population is extremely sensitive to large-scale climatic events and regional environmental changes in the Northwest Pacific Ocean.In 2015,Scomber japonicus has been listed among the priority fish species by North Pacific Fisheries Commission(NPFC).Accurate understanding of its stock status can provide strong guarantee for fishery management and sustainable development.The major global fisheries have been in data-poor/limit condition and the conventional stock assessments are available for stock based on accurate biological and catch data.As attaining high quality fishery statistics in a short period of time can be challenging,regional fisheries management organizations have determined that the data-poor approach is an appropriate research direction for the stock assessment of data-limited fisheries.Catch-MSY method can temporarily replace conventional stock assessment models in making management decisions for a data-limited fishery,even when only catch data are available.Further,Catch-MSY method requires less data compared to other methods.Consequently,this model may be a good choice for the MSY estimation of Scomber japonicus.Catch-MSY mod

关 键 词：Catch-MSY模型 日本鲭 敏感性分析 资源评估 西北太平洋 

分 类 号：S931[农业科学—渔业资源]