“一带一路”倡议对就业质量的影响及机制研究  

Research on the Impact and Mechanism of the “Belt and Road” Initiative on Employment Quality

作　　者：张虹 胡金 周文 胡明骏 ZHANG Hong;HU Jin;ZHOU Wen;HU Ming-jun(School of Foreign Language,Guizhou University of Fi-nance and Economics,Guiyang Guizhou 550000,China;School of Big Data Application and Economics,Guizhou University of Fi-nance and Economics,Guiyang Guizhou 550000,China;School of Economics,Guizhou University of Fi-nance and Economics,Guiyang Guizhou 550000,China;School of Business,Wenzhou University,Wenzhou Zhejiang325000,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学外语学院,贵阳550000 [2]贵州财经大学大数据应用与经济学院,贵阳550000 [3]贵州财经大学经济学院,贵阳550000 [4]温州大学商学院,浙江温州325000

出　　处：《西北人口》2023年第1期59-75,共17页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：贵州省社科基金青年项目“贵州生育稳定在适度水平的路径和政策保障研究”(22GZQN31)。

摘　　要：基于2011~2019年我国278个地级市的面板数据,采用双重差分模型发现“一带一路”倡议能够直接提升就业质量,同时就业结构优化能增强“一带一路”倡议对就业质量的促进作用。进一步研究发现这种政策效应具有异质性和空间溢出性,相比“一路”地区、内陆地区和东南地区“,一带一路”倡议对“一带”地区、边境地区和西北地区就业质量的提升作用更强,且就业质量在空间上存在内生交互效应。扩展性研究发现“一带一路”倡议对第三产业的“就业-产业”结构偏离度有显著的改善作用,对第二产业的“就业-产业”结构偏离度的影响不显著,同时对第一产业的“就业-产业”结构偏离度有不利影响。上述研究结论有助于从多方面理解“一带一路”倡议于就业层面上的影响,并为政策制定者提供了诸多有益的理论参考。Based on the panel data of 278 prefecture-level cities in China from 2011~2019, a double-difference model is used to find that the Belt and Road Initiative can directly improve employment quality, and the optimization of employment structure can enhance the promotion effect of the Belt and Road initiative on employment quality. Further study finds that this policy effect is heterogeneous and spatially spillover, with the “Belt and Road” Initiative having a positive impact on employment quality in the “One Belt” region, the border region and the Northwest China compared to the “One Road” region, the inland region and the Southeast China. Employment quality has an endogenous interaction effect in space. The extended study finds that the Belt and Road Initiative has a significant effect on narrowing the deviation of the employment-industry structure of the tertiary industry, but not on the employment-industry structure of the secondary industry, while the deviation of the employment-industry structure of the primary industry is adversely affected. The above findings help to understand the employment impact of the Belt and Road Initiative in various aspects and provide useful references for policy makers.

关 键 词：“一带一路”倡议 就业结构 就业质量 结构偏离度 双重差分 

分 类 号：F241.4[经济管理—劳动经济]