弹体结构高置信度内载荷不确定传播分析  

High-Confidence Load Uncertainty Propagation Analysis Method for Missile Structures

作　　者：邱宇 谢冯启 李哲 王磊[1] 邱志平[1] QIU Yu;XIE Feng-qi;LI Zhe;WANG Lei;QIU Zhi-ping(School of Aeronautic Science and Engineering,Beihang University,Beijing,100191,China;Shenyuan Honors College,Beihang University,Beijing,100191,China;Beijing Institute of Structure and Environment Engineering,Beijing 100076,China)

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学航空科学与工程学院,北京100191 [2]北京航空航天大学高等理工学院,北京100191 [3]北京强度环境研究所,北京100076

出　　处：《强度与环境》2023年第1期14-21,共8页Structure & Environment Engineering

基　　金：基础研究项目;国家自然科学基金(12132001,52192632)。

摘　　要：弹体结构内载荷的准确预示是导弹飞行器载荷设计的重要一环。本文针对弹体结构构建了一种高置信度的载荷不确定传播分析方法。首先基于非概率贝叶斯更新策略,构建了结构内载荷不确定输入参数区间模型后验概率的迭代过程,以获得不同区间模型的置信度。利用所筛选的最优置信度的不确定输入参数模型,基于勒让德正交多项式建立结构内载荷响应函数的近似函数,根据近似函数的零点特性求得载荷响应的区间上下界。结果表明本文方法能够为导弹飞行器结构载荷设计提供技术支撑。Accurate prediction of the load of the projectile structure is an important part of the load design of missile vehicles. In this paper, a high-confidence load uncertainty propagation analysis method is constructed for the missile structure. First, based on non-probabilistic Bayesian update strategy, an iterative process of posterior probabilities of interval models with uncertain input parameters for structural load is constructed to obtain the confidence level of different interval models. Using the filtered uncertain input parameter model with optimal confidence, the approximation function of the load response function within the structure is constructed based on the Legendre orthogonal polynomials, and the upper and lower bounds of the interval of the load response are found according to the zero-point property of the approximation function. The results show that the method proposed in this paper can provide technical support for load design of missile vehicle structures.

关 键 词：不确定性量化 区间不确定性 非概率贝叶斯 勒让德正交多项式 

分 类 号：TJ760.32[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程]