近20a乌兰布和沙漠土地利用/覆盖时空变化特征分析与预测  

Analysis and Prediction of Spatio-temporal Variation characteristics of Land Use/Coverage in Ulan Buh Desert in the Last 20 years

作　　者：郑天桥 张惜伟[1,2] ZHENG Tian-qiao;ZHANG Xi-wei(College of Geographical Science,Inner Mongolia Normal University,Hohhot 010022,China;Inner Mongolia Land Use and Regulation Engineering Technology Research Center,Hohhot 010022,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古师范大学地理科学学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010022 [2]内蒙古自治区土地利用与整治工程技术研究中心,内蒙古呼和浩特010022

出　　处：《内蒙古林业科技》2022年第4期28-35,共8页Journal of Inner Mongolia Forestry Science and Technology

基　　金：内蒙古自治区科技重大专项子课题“重点区域荒漠化过程与生态修复研究示范”(112/21k20190020)。

摘　　要：研究乌兰布和沙漠土地利用/覆盖类型的多维演变情况,可为防沙治沙建设提供理论依据。基于近20 a的3期遥感影像,测算土地利用动态度指数,采用重心迁移等方法,分析近20 a乌兰布和沙漠8种土地利用/覆盖类型的时空动态演变过程,并辅以CA-Markov模型展望未来20 a演变趋势。结果表明:2000—2019年研究区耕地、住宅用地、空闲地、草地、林地面积增加,沙地、盐碱地、水域及水利设施用地面积减小;土地利用/覆盖动态度均值为0.007 2,各类型土地利用/覆盖时空变化速度缓慢、程度平缓。近20 a,各类型土地利用/覆盖的重心移动距离较小;耕地、林地、住宅用地的面积增加,沙地、盐碱地的面积减少,总体上呈“绿进沙退”的演变特征。预测未来20 a沙地、盐碱地面积持续减小,耕地、林地、住宅用地面积持续增加,沙漠治理与防治效果显著。The research of the spatial and temporal evolution of land use/cover types can provide some theoretical basis for desertification prevention and control. Based on 3-phase remote sensing images in the last 20 years as data source, the land-use dynamic degrees were measured, the spatial and temporal dynamic evolution of eight land use/cover types in Ulan Buh Desert in the last 20 years was analyzed by use of migration of gravity center, assisted by the CA-Markov model to predict the evolution trend in the next 20 years. The results showed that from 2000 to 2019, the area of cultivated land, residential land, vacant land, grassland and woodland increased, the area of sandy land, saline-alkali land and water area and water conservancy facilities land decreased, the average land use/cover dynamics was 0.007 2, and the speed and degree of spatial and temporal change of land use/cover types were slowly and gently. In recent 20 years, the center of gravity movement distance was small, the area of cultivated land, woodland and residential land increased, the area of sandy land and saline-alkali land decreased, which overall showed “green back into the sand”. It’s predicted that in future 20 years, the area of sandy land and saline-alkali land will continuously decrease, the area of cultivated land, woodland and residential land will continuously increase, and the effects of desert prevention and control will be remarkable.

关 键 词：沙漠 土地利用/覆盖 内蒙古 乌兰布和 遥感影像 

分 类 号：P237[天文地球—摄影测量与遥感]