区域大气污染联防联控的政策效果评估——基于京津冀及周边地区“2+26”城市的准自然实验  

Quantitative Assessment of the Effects of Joint Prevention and Control of Regional Air Pollution:A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on“2+26”Cities

作　　者：李建呈 王洛忠 Li Jiancheng;Wang Luozhong(School of Humanities and Social Science,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083;School of Government,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875)

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学文法学院,北京100083 [2]北京师范大学政府管理学院,北京100875

出　　处：《中国行政管理》2023年第1期75-83,共9页Chinese Public Administration

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“基于大数据驱动的公共服务精准管理研究”(编号:20&ZD113);中央高校基本科研业务费项目“京津冀及周边地区大气污染协同治理的实践效果与作用机制研究”(编号:FRF-TP-22-135A1)。

摘　　要：本研究以京津冀及周边地区为对象,运用双重差分倾向得分匹配法构造准自然实验,评估区域大气污染联防联控的政策效果,并考察政策的动态效应及其作用路径。研究发现,“2+26”城市大气污染联防联控政策能够有效治理区域性、复合型大气污染问题,但同时,区域性、复合型大气污染防治亦受多重因素共同影响,是一项兼具复杂性与整体性的系统工程。一系列稳健性检验均表明基本结论的可靠性。动态效应分析结果表明,区域联防联控的污染治理效应具有长效性,且呈现逐年增长之势。机制分析结果表明,“2+26”城市主要通过调整城市自身的产业结构以及能源结构两种途径实现了大气污染联防联控的政策目标。Taking Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and its surrounding areas as the research objects,this paper uses the PSM-DID method to construct a quasi-natural experiment to evaluate the policy effects of joint prevention and control of regional air pollution,and investigates its dynamic effects and mechanisms.The study finds that the joint prevention and control policy of air pollution in“2+26”cities can effectively control regional and complex air pollution problems.But at the same time,the prevention and control of regional and complex air pollution is also affected by multiple factors,which is a systematic project with both complexity and integrity.A series of robustness tests show the reliability of the basic conclusions.The results of dynamic effect analysis show that the pollution control of regional joint prevention and control has a long-term effect and shows a trend of growth year by year.The results of the mechanism analysis show that“2+26”cities have achieved the policy goal of joint prevention and control of air pollution mainly by adjusting the city’s own industrial structure and energy structure.

关 键 词：“2+26”城市 区域大气污染 联防联控 PSM-DID方法 

分 类 号：D035[政治法律—政治学]