运用新型灰色模型预测陕西省公路通车里程  

Predicting the Highway Mileage by Means of the New Grey Model

作　　者：舒服华[1] SHU Fuhua(Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430070)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《陕西国防职教研究》2023年第1期20-23,42,共5页Shaanxi Guofang Vocational Education Research

摘　　要：运用灰色HGM(2,1)模型对陕西省公路通车里程进行了预测,结果显示,模型平均预测误差仅为0.4167%,比GM(1,1)模型的1.5997%和DGM(1,1)模型1.5995%分别减小了73.9514%和73.9481%,2021年的预测误差仅为-0.39567%,比GM(1,1)模型的-1.70034%,和DGM(1,1)的1.697174分别减小了76.7300%和76.6865。利用模型对2020-2024年陕西省公路通车里程进行了预测,通过分析,说明这一预测结果要较高的可信度。The highway mileage of Shaanxi Province is predicted by means of Grey Model HGM(2,1),whose result is that the average error is just 0.4167%,reduced by 73.9514%and 73.9481%compared with 1.5997%of GM(1,1)and 1.5995%of DGM(1,1).The predicted error of the year 2021 is just-0/39567%,reduced by 76.7300%compared with the-1.70034%of GM(1,1)and 1.697174 of DGM(1.1).The highway mileage of the years from 2020 to 2024 is predicted by means of models and after analysis,we can know the reliability of the predicted results.

关 键 词：陕西 公路长度 预测 HGM(2 1)模型 

分 类 号：F540[经济管理—产业经济]