中国装备制造业进口依赖--基于贸易增加值核算法的供需端分析  

Import Dependence of China’s Equipment Manufacturing Industry:Analysis of supply and demand based on trade value added accounting method

作　　者：顾金科 赵志泉[1] 王晶华 GU Jinke;ZHAO Zhiquan;WANG Jinghua(School of Economics and Management,Zhongyuan University of Technology,Zhengzhou 450007,China)

机构地区：[1]中原工学院经济管理学院,郑州450007

出　　处：《科技和产业》2023年第3期1-13,共13页Science Technology and Industry

基　　金：国家社科基金一般规划项目(20BGL026);2019年河南省高等学校哲学社会科学应用研究重大项目(2019-YYZD-20)。

摘　　要：利用2007-2019年世界投入产出数据,基于总贸易核算法对中国装备制造业出口进行分解,并从国外增加值的来源、流出以及出口占比分析中国装备制造业出口对进口产品的依赖程度。结果表明:中国装备制造业出口质量提升明显;生产依赖方面,对发达国家依赖度较高,对东盟和资源型国家依赖度上涨明显,细分产业中的基础产业存在依赖国家过于集中现象;需求依赖方面,出口美国对进口产品的需求依赖度最高,且呈现上涨趋势,出口东盟等新兴国家依赖度也在上涨,细分产业中同样如此;出口对外依存度下降明显,高附加值产业更为显著;综合来看,中国装备制造业国外增加值明显向美国和地缘位置优越的国家集中,且有强化趋势。中国应加大技术密集型产业研发投入力度,多元化装备制造业进口来源,构建互利共赢的国际贸易新格局,通过高质量进出口补短铸长,推动装备制造业价值链攀升。Using the world input-output data from 2007 to 2019, and based on the total trade accounting method, the export of China’s equipment manufacturing industry is decomposed, and the dependence extent of China’s equipment manufacturing exports on imported products is analyzes from the perspective of foreign value-added sources, outflows and export share. The results show that the export quality of China’s equipment manufacturing industry has improved significantly, and the dependence on developed countries is higher than that on ASEAN and resource-based countries.In terms of demand dependence, the demand dependence on imported products is the highest in the United States, and it shows an upward trend.The dependence of export to ASEAN and other emerging countries is also on the rise, and the same is true of the sub-industries, export dependence on foreign countries has dropped significantly, and the high value-added industries are even more significant, taken together, the value-added of China’s equipment manufacturing industry is obviously concentrated to the United States and the countries with superior geographical position, and there is a strengthening trend. China should increase R&D investment in technology-intensive industries, diversify import sources of equipment manufacturing industry, build a new pattern of international trade for mutual benefit and win-win results through high-quality import and export, pushing up the value chain of equipment manufacturing.

关 键 词：总贸易核算法 进口依赖 出口贸易 供给端依赖 需求端依赖 

分 类 号：F719[经济管理—产业经济]