中国对东盟机电产品出口贸易波动因素分解--基于恒定市场份额模型  

Factors Decomposition of Export Trade Fluctuation of China’s Electromechanical Products to ASEAN:Based on constant market share model

作　　者：赵子溢 颜雨露 陈诗晴 ZHAO Ziyi;YAN Yulu;CHEN Shiqing(Alibaba Business School,Hangzhou Normal University,Hangzhou 311121,China)

机构地区：[1]杭州师范大学阿里巴巴商学院,杭州311121

出　　处：《科技和产业》2023年第3期27-37,共11页Science Technology and Industry

基　　金：浙江省高校人文社科重大攻关项目(2021QH006);浙江省软科学项目(2022C35065)。

摘　　要：基于UN Comtrade数据库,构建恒定市场份额(CMS)模型,分析2004-2020年中国对东盟市场机电产品出口贸易波动的影响因素。结果表明:整体竞争力效应是中国机电产品出口的主要增长动力,其次是增长效应;而具体竞争力效应限制了中国机电产品的出口增长;产品结构效应和纯二阶效应的影响在促进和抑制之间波动,但对出口增长的影响有限;动态二阶效应逐年下降至负数,对出口增长产生阻碍作用。Based on UN Comtrade data, constant market share(CMS) Model is applied to explore the influencing factors of the growth of electromechanical products export from China to ASEAN during 2004 and 2020. The results show that the overall competitiveness effect is the main growth force of China’s electromechanical products export, followed by the growth effect;while the specific competitiveness effect has the hindrance effect to China’s electromechanical product export growth. The influence of product structure effect and pure second-order effect fluctuates between promotion and inhibition, but the impact on export growth is limited;the dynamic second-order effect decreases slightly year by year to a negative number, which hinders export growth.

关 键 词：中国-东盟 机电出口 恒定市场份额(CMS)模型 贸易波动 

分 类 号：F746.12[经济管理—国际贸易]